GM’s Mary Barra Says GM can Catch Tesla by 2025. Problem is…

[Ogre]

Each of those factories will produce around 500,000 per year, but if I’m not mistaken, that’s with one assembly line. I thought I saw somewhere that at least the Austin plant was big enough for four lines. As they perfect the line, they will add more.

Fremont produces 600k cars per year. I’ve heard them talk about expanding to 1m vehicles a year there.

Texas is something like 4 times bigger. I fully expect it will produce more than 2 million vehicles a year when it hits peak in 3-4 years. Maybe as much as 4 million vehicles a year.

Berlin and Shanghai are both likely capable of a million units/ year as well. It’s just going to take time. They were built for this purpose and are both bigger than Fremont.

There is a LOT of scale built into each of these factories. Tesla build these facilities to scale up big. It is going to take time and money, but even if they didn’t build another factory for 3-4 years, Tesla has plenty of runway.

They will almost certainly build in the next 3-4 years, but they have a little breathing room right now.

 

[Red61224]

I am sure they are looking for that sweet spot for turning Texas and Berlin to profit before breaking ground on another. It is still fun to hypothesize. Maybe Texas will get a twin or maybe they will venture to the rust belt for ready workers. If we are 6 months away from volume MY production we can probably expect some sort of announcement by then. 18 months from then to build a factory and they have a team fresh off some successful projects.

I think it is also possible that Tesla will blow away current expectations with these new facilities. Megacastings, minimal wiring looms, structural packs, vehicles are going to fly out of those factories.

It has already been projected to finish a completed vehicle every 45 seconds.

 

[Sirfun]

Fremont produces 600k cars per year. I’ve heard them talk about expanding to 1m vehicles a year there.

Texas is something like 4 times bigger. I fully expect it will produce more than 2 million vehicles a year when it hits peak in 3-4 years. Maybe as much as 4 million vehicles a year.

Berlin and Shanghai are both likely capable of a million units/ year as well. It’s just going to take time. They were built for this purpose and are both bigger than Fremont.

There is a LOT of scale built into each of these factories. Tesla build these facilities to scale up big. It is going to take time and money, but even if they didn’t build another factory for 3-4 years, Tesla has plenty of runway.

They will almost certainly build in the next 3-4 years, but they have a little breathing room right now.

I hear numbers like 2 million a vehicles produced a year at one facility and cringe. With the average car hauler transporting 7 vehicles, that would mean over 1/4 of a million transporters fully loaded driving out of Giga Texas a year. Holy crap!

 

[firsttruck]

I hear numbers like 2 million a vehicles produced a year at one facility and cringe. With the average car hauler transporting 7 vehicles, that would mean over 1/4 of a million transporters fully loaded driving out of Giga Texas a year. Holy crap!

There is rail line about 20 miles away that could be extended to Giga Texas.

Another option is a Boring Co tunnel to the rail line.

 

[datechboss101]

Just between the capacity at Fremont and Tera Texas ramping up, Tesla is going to have capacity to manufacture between 1.5 and 2 million vehicles/ year and that capacity is online end of 2023. GM told their shareholders recently they aren’t planning on having capacity for more than 20% of their US sales converted by 2025, that’s not quite 1.5 million vehicles. Tesla is on course to have capacity to produce 4-5 million EVs a year in the US alone.

Either GM was seriously sandbagging at their investors meeting; Barra is completely unaware of Teslas production capacity coming online; or she’s just outright lying.

There is a strong chance Tesla will be selling more total cars (ICE + EVs) than GM by 2027. I’d give them a 50/50 chance of surpassing them by 2025.

Mary Barra needs to step down. IDK what she is smoking in those closed doors, but I will not purchase any EV from GM. And sucks to say, my favorite brand is literally teaming with GM to build EVs. Its such a disappointment, hopefully they wake up and try to team up with Tesla.

 

[Crissa]

Each of those factories will produce around 500,000 per year, but if I’m not mistaken, that’s with one assembly line. I thought I saw somewhere that at least the Austin plant was big enough for four lines. As they perfect the line, they will add more.

They have more than four lines in Fremont. The S and X are intermixed, and the 3 and Y are intermixed, but there are multiple lines for those vehicles.

If you think of Fremont as a unit, Giga Austin can fit a third of the entire Fremont footprint - parking lots and all - on one floor. And it has two. Giga Austin has eight times the acreage to work with.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

Musk has said that he wants a factory on the *continent* where the vehicles are sold.

India makes sense for a bunch of reasons, but a factory in Japan would need to export everything.

I’m not sure about engineering talent in Nigeria, but if Tesla is going to sell cars in Africa and Tesla is going to put a factory on every continent where they sell cars, Nigeria makes some sense.

That makes me wonder about South America. Would they go to South America or just rely on Texas exports? Or per haps Mexico.

GM’s Mary Barra is right!
In 1 year Mrs Barra can stop all GM’s ICE production. General Motors has the power to build 7-10 Million BEV per year.
Will GM stop all ICE and flip the entire company to BEV?
Truth
GM’s Mary Barra could and by next year surpass Tesla, VW, Ford, and all the rest of the BEV want 2 Bz and become the greatest BEV company in the world.
Lets Hope
GM’s Mary Barra can do it and stop all ICE production.

I wish her the best.

 

[rr6013]

How does BEV shake out?

Development always favors the ends while there’s little to made if you are caught in the middle. American automakers ceded Tesla the Big end. China are in the throes of erupting in little small manufacturers. While Aptera’s of the world and motorcycle manufacturers are popping up with new offerings.

The super efficient might be the emerging trend away from big expensive EV’s. Tesla could pause here to avoid over building production that never materializes. Only the top 7% can afford a Tesla. While 70% of world population live on $35/day.

Suzuki’s of the world might be poised to move on such an opportunity when cheap technology emerges. Does Elon have any desire to crush the numbers cranking out small little efficient Teslas? Tesla looks to be the next Apple making big margins not big production.

It looks like a whole different landscape is in the throes of forming just now. A second rust belt, move toward mass transit and short haul little efficient form factors driven by high cost technology are constraining the Mary Barra dinosaurs. A whole class of ICE automakers could be caught in the middle.

 

[jerhenderson]

GM’s Mary Barra is right!
In 1 year Mrs Barra can stop all GM’s ICE production. General Motors has the power to build 7-10 Million BEV per year.
Will GM stop all ICE and flip the entire company to BEV?
Truth
GM’s Mary Barra could and by next year surpass Tesla, VW, Ford, and all the rest of the BEV want 2 Bz and become the greatest BEV company in the world.
Lets Hope
GM’s Mary Barra can do it and stop all ICE production.

no they can't - not even Tesla has the battery supply yet to make that many vehicles in a year - that's why when GM states stuff like that they look like fools living in alternate reality.

 

[ReddykwRun]

I don’t get why everyone gets so much Joy out of an American Icon that employs so many people dying off. I have no doubt both Tesla and GM can sell any EV they can produce. Even if she is B.S.ing about their ability, they are obviously dumping a ton of money into going electric. I don’t get why we wouldn’t want that to happen.

It may be rooted in the dishonest behavior of GM that people find distasteful and so we have no pity on them and GM will get what they deserve.

 

[Ogre]

GM’s Mary Barra is right!
In 1 year Mrs Barra can stop all GM’s ICE production. General Motors has the power to build 7-10 Million BEV per year.
Will GM stop all ICE and flip the entire company to BEV?
Truth
GM’s Mary Barra could and by next year surpass Tesla, VW, Ford, and all the rest of the BEV want 2 Bz and become the greatest BEV company in the world.
Lets Hope
GM’s Mary Barra can do it and stop all ICE production.

No they can’t. They can’t source enough batteries to do this.

 

[Ogre]

no they can't - not even Tesla has the battery supply yet to make that many vehicles in a year - that's why when GM states stuff like that they look like fools living in alternate reality.

I don’t think the comment you replied to is a quote from Mary Barra.

 

[Ogre]

What I would like to see:
All -New 2023 Electric Corvette Z06
Lighter, Quicker, Faster maybe to fast
No gas
No oil
No tune ups
No maintenance
Just plug in and go.
Ok
Lets do this make a BEV Corvette and a ICE Corvette just to see what the customers want.
Lest Hope General Motors is reading posts like this and takes the hint.

I’m genuinely surprised that GM went with rebooting the Hummer brand for their “EV Flagship” when the Corvette would be so much more of a natural fit. They could have beat Tesla to the punch and released a $100,000 Corvette with mind melting performance using the platform they used for the Hummer. The Roadster would likely have better performance when it gets launched, but the Corvette has never been truly competitive with supercars either.

A $100k Corvette would be more sports car than most people would ever need and would be a true flagship. The Hummer is just a giant clown car. It’s not good at much of anything. In the mean time, GM has been investing a bunch of money trying to make the Corvette more competitive with ICE supercars.

The amount of money and lost opportunity wasted on this double blunder is just mind boggling.

 

[TechOps]

GM will still be around at the end of the decade. But they will be owned by a Chinese car manufacturer.

 

[A.W.Jelfs]

GM used to make cars in Australia under the title GMH, so did Ford and Toyota as well. The government pulled subsidies and now not a single car is made in Australia. GM does not know how to make a profit without government help and now they want another hand out to help them pivot to EV cars. i would suggest the time for propping up failing companies is over.
America can not afford to keep handing out the cash, check out your debt clock, i didn't realize numbers where that big and could move that fast.