GM’s Mary Barra Says GM can Catch Tesla by 2025. Problem is…

[Ogre]

Can somebody fix the thread title typo?

I’m guessing Autocorrect? That was a weird one.

Unless it was a different typo. Can’t believe nobody noticed it until page three.

 

[Red61224]

Just between the capacity at Fremont and Tera Texas ramping up, Tesla is going to have capacity to manufacture between 1.5 and 2 million vehicles/ year and that capacity is online end of 2023. GM told their shareholders recently they aren’t planning on having capacity for more than 20% of their US sales converted by 2025, that’s not quite 1.5 million vehicles. Tesla is on course to have capacity to produce 4-5 million EVs a year in the US alone.

Either GM was seriously sandbagging at their investors meeting; Barra is completely unaware of Teslas production capacity coming online; or she’s just outright lying.

There is a strong chance Tesla will be selling more total cars (ICE + EVs) than GM by 2027. I’d give them a 50/50 chance of surpassing them by 2025.

I listened to Sandy Munro today and he gave the production stats of GM's little Flaming Marshmellow a.k.a. The Bolt, and in the last six years of production, they have only produced a whopping 100K Bolts, (16,666 units/year). Me thinks they have a lot of catching up to do before anyone can take them seriously. All talk and lies till they turn the lights out at GM.

 

[Red61224]

I don’t feel sorry for companies that fail to innovate. When Blockbuster first heard about Netflix allowing you to keep your movie as long as you want, Blockbuster executive in charge said, “We would never do something dumb like that.” Late fees made up 12.5% of their total revenue. Now there is only 1 Blockbuster in the world (Oregon).

I foresee a major consolidation of the traditional auto manufacturing companies by 2030. It is a mathematical certainty.

Tesla is more than an auto company. Elon Musk is the Howard Hughes of our time.

Tesla Auto and Property Insurance will go hand in hand. High profitability.
Tesla's have less depreciation vs. ICE cars.
Less Maintenance Cost
Cheaper to fuel

 

[Tinker71]

I think it is interesting that Tesla has not broken ground on any new auto plants. What is their path to 11 million units a year? There have been some discussions about India and Russia, both of which are politically difficult.

I am thinking east coast in the US but I am having a hard time coming up with another country in Europe. Maybe UK gets a megafactory? Vietnam? Nigeria?

 

[Crissa]

I think it is interesting that Tesla has not broken ground on any new auto plants. What is their path to 11 million units a year? There have been some discussions about India and Russia, both of which are politically difficult.

They're caught between profit and expansion capital expense. They can't break ground on new factories without proving the profit of the ones they're building now. These factories are made so that they can expand 4-10x.

It'll take time. Right now they only have factories in places with 15+ million annual sales, and these factories are designed to have output stating at half a million each, and expanding to multiple millions.

Tesla can't build them all today.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

They're caught between profit and expansion capital expense. They can't break ground on new factories without proving the profit of the ones they're building now. These factories are made so that they can expand 4-10x.

It'll take time. Right now they only have factories in places with 15+ million annual sales, and these factories are designed to have output stating at half a million each, and expanding to multiple millions.

Tesla can't build them all today.

-Crissa

I am sure they are looking for that sweet spot for turning Texas and Berlin to profit before breaking ground on another. It is still fun to hypothesize. Maybe Texas will get a twin or maybe they will venture to the rust belt for ready workers. If we are 6 months away from volume MY production we can probably expect some sort of announcement by then. 18 months from then to build a factory and they have a team fresh off some successful projects.

I think it is also possible that Tesla will blow away current expectations with these new facilities. Megacastings, minimal wiring looms, structural packs, vehicles are going to fly out of those factories.

 

[ricinro]

They're caught between profit and expansion capital expense. They can't break ground on new factories without proving the profit of the ones they're building now. These factories are made so that they can expand 4-10x.

It'll take time. Right now they only have factories in places with 15+ million annual sales, and these factories are designed to have output stating at half a million each, and expanding to multiple millions.

Tesla can't build them all today.

-Crissa

"Tesla can't build them all today."

It does take time for change to happen. Tesla, as an organization, was small and unencumbered and had the ability to achieve the change hypervelocity that is impressing. As they grow they will lose that nimble nature.
Remember when Elon introduced the Tesla bot and made a strident comment about moving to basic income? All these discussion about ICE manufactures failing, Unions failing, and what next? eradicating governments for the speedbumps they create?
We will need all hands to accelerate the transition but always remember it is not a M3 doing donuts in a dirt lot; it is more like an Aircraft carrier leaving a harbor.
Change will need to happen at GM and it is quite a bit more than wearing a leather coat to look like Elon.

 

[happy intruder]

"Tesla can't build them all today."

It does take time for change to happen. Tesla, as an organization, was small and unencumbered and had the ability to achieve the change hypervelocity that is impressing. As they grow they will lose that nimble nature.
Remember when Elon introduced the Tesla bot and made a strident comment about moving to basic income? All these discussion about ICE manufactures failing, Unions failing, and what next? eradicating governments for the speedbumps they create?
We will need all hands to accelerate the transition but always remember it is not a M3 doing donuts in a dirt lot; it is more like an Aircraft carrier leaving a harbor.
Change will need to happen at GM and it is quite a bit more than wearing a leather t coat to look like Elon.

I think the big 3 are in deep poop......they may have a couple of BEVs and hybrids, but they are 2-4 years behind Tesla in being able to crank out production runs of cars and trucks......not to mention the charging networks.......I am very disappointed that Elon will be allowing other BEVs charging at superchargers......hopefully, they will set aside a couple with the adapters on them for just the other cars.....I would not be happy to arrive and be having to wait for a spot taken up by a car that is not Tesla.

 

[Ogre]

I think it is interesting that Tesla has not broken ground on any new auto plants. What is their path to 11 million units a year? There have been some discussions about India and Russia, both of which are politically difficult.

I am thinking east coast in the US but I am having a hard time coming up with another country in Europe. Maybe UK gets a megafactory? Vietnam? Nigeria?

Tesla is looking for a new location for the it next factory.

They have enough square footage to more than triple current output So there is quite a bit of runway with what they have. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them build more in Texas before buying more US properties.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, I would expect India is the next, honestly.

That puts a factory in a right hand drive terrain and while India only has sales of under three million, but an emerging market and good export terms with Australia. And despite the religious strife currently, with Indonesia and their neighbors.

-Crissa

 

[firsttruck]

Yeah, I would expect India is the next, honestly.

That puts a factory in a right hand drive terrain and while India only has sales of under three million, but an emerging market and good export terms with Australia. And despite the religious strife currently, with Indonesia and their neighbors.

-Crissa

One of the critera Elon has is where a lot of engineeers are available or would be interested in moving too.

Unfortunately Vietnam & Nigeria are not high on the list.

India has as lot of engineers and many Tesla engineers are from India.

Tesla India could export cars to:
other parts of South East Asia
Non EU parts of Eastern Europe
Middle East
Africa
Indonesia
Mayalsia


Another location for Tesla factory is Japan.

 

[Ogre]

I think the big 3 are in deep poop......they may have a couple of BEVs and hybrids, but they are 2-4 years behind Tesla in being able to crank out production runs of cars and trucks......

They are more than 4 years behind. 4 years ago, Tesla launched the Model 3 and in spite of “production hell”, they produced 100,000 that year and 250,000+ every year since.

Ford is almost certain to fall way short of the 50k Mach Es they’d planned to build in 2021. GM has only built around 100k Bolts and very little else.

not to mention the charging networks.......I am very disappointed that Elon will be allowing other BEVs charging at superchargers......hopefully, they will set aside a couple with the adapters on them for just the other cars.....I would not be happy to arrive and be having to wait for a spot taken up by a car that is not Tesla.

Tesla is planning on tripling the Supercharger network over the next 2 years. That should accommodate their current expansion plans plus the handful over non-Teslas which trickle out of the Rust Belt and Mexico.

Hopefully some of those new charging stations will have Cybertruck sized parking, it’s going to be tight squeezing into the stalls in Springfield or Bend.

 

[Ogre]

One of the critera Elon has is where a lot of engineeers are available or would be interested in moving too.

Unfortunately Vietnam & Nigeria are not high on the list.

Musk has said that he wants a factory on the *continent* where the vehicles are sold.

India makes sense for a bunch of reasons, but a factory in Japan would need to export everything.

I’m not sure about engineering talent in Nigeria, but if Tesla is going to sell cars in Africa and Tesla is going to put a factory on every continent where they sell cars, Nigeria makes some sense.

That makes me wonder about South America. Would they go to South America or just rely on Texas exports? Or per haps Mexico.

 

[Owner13669]

Just between the capacity at Fremont and Tera Texas ramping up, Tesla is going to have capacity to manufacture between 1.5 and 2 million vehicles/ year and that capacity is online end of 2023. GM told their shareholders recently they aren’t planning on having capacity for more than 20% of their US sales converted by 2025, that’s not quite 1.5 million vehicles. Tesla is on course to have capacity to produce 4-5 million EVs a year in the US alone.

Either GM was seriously sandbagging at their investors meeting; Barra is completely unaware of Teslas production capacity coming online; or she’s just outright lying.

There is a strong chance Tesla will be selling more total cars (ICE + EVs) than GM by 2027. I’d give them a 50/50 chance of surpassing them by 2025.

Each of those factories will produce around 500,000 per year, but if I’m not mistaken, that’s with one assembly line. I thought I saw somewhere that at least the Austin plant was big enough for four lines. As they perfect the line, they will add more.

 

[CyberT]

I think it is interesting that Tesla has not broken ground on any new auto plants. What is their path to 11 million units a year? There have been some discussions about India and Russia, both of which are politically difficult.

I am thinking east coast in the US but I am having a hard time coming up with another country in Europe. Maybe UK gets a megafactory? Vietnam? Nigeria?

Elon was asked about breaking ground on new Giga Factories at the 2021 Annual Stockholders meeting. Jump to the 1:07:25 to watch Elons response.
Basically, he said Tesla might start scouting for locations next year (2022) and maybe make a decision in 2023.

Tesla has a lot of room to grow into now with Austin and Berlin coming online soon. both factories can be expanded for an estimated 2 million vehicles per year. That will suffice their massive growth for the next 4-5 years