GM’s Mary Barra Says GM can Catch Tesla by 2025. Problem is…

[Bill906]

At least she seems to be admitting that EV's are the future. She could have said we don't want that much EV market share because the market will still be ICE vehicles. (glass isn't empty outlook).

 

[Ogre]

I don’t get why everyone gets so much Joy out of an American Icon that employs so many people dying off. I have no doubt both Tesla and GM can sell any EV they can produce. Even if she is B.S.ing about their ability, they are obviously dumping a ton of money into going electric. I don’t get why we wouldn’t want that to happen.

I agree, and that wasn’t what I was intending.

I just find the disconnect between the narrative and the actions fascinating. I genuinely struggle to see ICE vehicles retaining more than fractional market share by the end of the decade. At the same time I hear CEOs of major corporations talking about having half their business hinged on those same ICE vehicles.

Either my expectations are broken or those American Icons are just a few years from failure.

Have you ever seen people line the sides of a street to watch a building burn down? That’s kind of what it feels like. Fascinating, but recognizing that it is immensely destructive.

 

[Diehard]

I agree, and that wasn’t what I was intending.

I just find the disconnect between the narrative and the actions fascinating. I genuinely struggle to see ICE vehicles retaining more than fractional market share by the end of the decade. At the same time I hear CEOs of major corporations talking about having half their business hinged on those same ICE vehicles.

Either my expectations are broken or those American Icons are just a few years from failure.

Have you ever seen people line the sides of a street to watch a building burn down? That’s kind of what it feels like. Fascinating, but recognizing that it is immensely destructive.

Keep in mind these CEOs have a tight rope to walk. For Tesla it is simple they only produce EVs and they simply have to grow to keep their share holders happy. Even with that Elon constantly have to throw better numbers at shareholders every quarter as a part of the Job. For GM CEO that their money right now is coming from ICE and in future has to come from EVs, every quarter she has to dance to a different tune as they transition so she does not freak out the shareholders. If she says “No ICE for you” starting tomorrow, she has no money to fund the EVs, if she says NO ICE the day after tomorrow, all her suppliers will freak out and she can’t even make the ICE today. So everyday she has to come up with the right amount of B.S. for all parties at different ends of this transition to see it through. I certainly wouldn’t want to be in her ?. High hills are just not my thing.

 

[Ogre]

Keep in mind these CEOs have a tight rope to walk. For Tesla it is simple they only produce EVs and they simply have to grow to keep their share holders happy. Even with that Elon constantly have to throw better numbers at shareholders every quarter as a part of the Job. For GM CEO that their money right now is coming from ICE and in future has to come from EVs, every quarter she has to dance to a different tune as they transition so she does not freak out the shareholders. If she says “No ICE for you” starting tomorrow, she has no money to fund the EVs, if she says NO ICE the day after tomorrow, all her suppliers will freak out and she can’t even make the ICE today. So everyday she has to come up with the right amount of B.S. for all parties at different ends of this transition to see it through. I certainly wouldn’t want to be in her ?. High hills are just not my thing.

Spot on.

Reality is their profits come from products which will not exist in 10 years. Explaining that to investors and making the moves they need to in order to survive in the long term would crush their share value in the short term. It is extremely difficult for CEOs to execute on plans that stretch 10 years. Investors are impatient.

In order for Mary Barra or any of the entrenched auto executives to admit that their company needs to completely transition or cease to exist is a quick way to the exit door.

 

[JBee]

She's not on crack she's on ICE.

And don't knock Nikola it had sci-fi tech that harvested the energy of the planet...gravity.

 

[John K]

Any company can change direction with correct leadership and a new supported heading. 2025 is a bit of an aggressive prediction.

 

[CyberGus]

I genuinely struggle to see ICE vehicles retaining more than fractional market share by the end of the decade. At the same time I hear CEOs of major corporations talking about having half their business hinged on those same ICE vehicles.

EV takeover by 2030 is aggressive. There's still plenty of demand for "real cars" (ahem), and there is insufficient EV infrastructure and production capacity to eliminate ICE production. I think we will hit a tipping point by 2030, where EV sales will dominate, but I don't see ICE disappearing until EVs can meet production needs, and exceed price parity.

 

[Ogre]

EV takeover by 2030 is aggressive. There's still plenty of demand for "real cars" (ahem), and there is insufficient EV infrastructure and production capacity to eliminate ICE production. I think we will hit a tipping point by 2030, where EV sales will dominate, but I don't see ICE disappearing until EVs can meet production needs, and exceed price parity.

I don’t know exactly how this plays out. I don’t think we’re going to see a nice smooth transition to EVs though.

Things like this tend to happen slowly at first, then all at once. In the past 5 years EV demand went from 20,000 per year to the current state where Tesla has outstanding orders and pre orders for over 2 million cars and trucks they can’t fill fast enough.

Price parity is coming fast, the Cybertruck is already at parity with the F150 in most ways. That was kind of the point of the Cybertruck. More cars will come.

 

[rr6013]

I don’t get why everyone gets so much Joy out of an American Icon that employs so many people dying off. I have no doubt both Tesla and GM can sell any EV they can produce. Even if she is B.S.ing about their ability, they are obviously dumping a ton of money into going electric. I don’t get why we wouldn’t want that to happen.

This Strawman you’ve stood up needs more than posturing.

I drive a GM, raced and won with GM. These people are alpha gearheads bar none. Its second only to the sad day I witnessed 70 nautical carpenters pink slip at Kettenburg Marine. Not only was that their last day but last job working at a craft unparalleled by anyone on the planet. A whole class og journey skills lost. This is what awaits ICE entrenched industry that walks away from EV-1 then knee jerks two decades later when only a Presidential subsidy won’t save old ICE mfgrs.

That ton of money that so impressed might as well have been thrown on a bonfire. Ultium battery isn’t even GM’s but born and developed Chinese.

No one wants GM to fail. But standing by while Mary pontificates then throws airballs at Tesla like that’s a score? This is a duck and quicker everyone gets GM off this game its playing - quicker those Americans have a chance to build job security producing EV’s to better the chances all of us have at any kind of life after global warming.

 

[Crissa]

Ultium battery isn’t even GM’s but born and developed Chinese.

Where did you get that?

-Crissa

 

[A.W.Jelfs]

I don’t get why everyone gets so much Joy out of an American Icon that employs so many people dying off. I have no doubt both Tesla and GM can sell any EV they can produce. Even if she is B.S.ing about their ability, they are obviously dumping a ton of money into going electric. I don’t get why we wouldn’t want that to happen.

I don't think anyone wants to see GM go bust but, and there is always a but, a lot more people are going to suffer due to their laggard approach to electric vehicles.
Tesla has created tens of thousands of jobs for Americans softening the blow as other car makers dissolve.
They built their largest plant in Texas the home of oil, so they really want to help the states that will suffer the most.
Maybe Ford, GM and Dodge could join forces to make a good skateboard and just pop their own bodies on top with Tesla FSD powering their autopilot.
The issue is CEO's without 20/20 vision are selling their workers down the road.

 

[rr6013]

LG Chem’s battery technology brought over to USA rebranded in a “partnership” with GM. GM is following Tesla chemistry substituting AL for Cobalt.
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/what-is-the-gm-ultium-battery/

 

[Ogre]

LG Chem’s battery technology brought over to USA rebranded in a “partnership” with GM. GM is following Tesla chemistry substituting AL for Cobalt.
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/what-is-the-gm-ultium-battery/

LG is from South Korea not China.

I think GMs reliance on outside innovation for battery tech is one of their big mistakes over the past 10 years. While Tesla used the funds from selling 200,000 vehicles with subsidies, GM mostly just sent checks overseas. The result is they have a battery platform which is 5+ years behind Tesla’s. That will cut into their margins heavily in the future and ensures they will have sub-par vehicles to boot.

 

[Crissa]

Lucky and Goldstar are from Korea ^-^

I don't think I would count the cell manufacturer as the source for Ultium technology. They're doing some cool stuff in there.

-Crissa

 

[Diehard]

"

This is what awaits ICE entrenched industry that walks away from EV-1 then knee jerks two decades later when only a Presidential subsidy won’t save old ICE mfgrs.

I give you that. That was a big fail on GM part.

That ton of money that so impressed might as well have been thrown on a bonfire. Ultium battery isn’t even GM’s but born and developed Chinese.

Are you suggesting GM does overnight what Panasonic and Samsung have perfected over decades? Standing on sidelines and demanding these gigantic endeavors just because a once in a century man (Elon) has attempt it is mighty easy for anyone with access to a keyboard. When was the last time you created a company that size? I think what they are doing now is exactly the right thing to do. Get the batteries from someone that knows what they are doing, get the cars right and then try to improve their security and cost by securing battery supply with partners or if they can afford alone.

Hindsight is 20/20. Now that everyone is suffering from supply shortage, all of a sudden people thinI every manufacturer should make their own screws and bolts. That is nice thing to do in an ideal world. But here is what I think will happen if everyone does that. After spending millions may be billions over a decade 40 car companies make their own batteries and motors then a non car company comes up with a new tech that allows 4 times the power density for batteries and another company with twice the performance for the motor for half the cost. They all have to dump their own motors and batteries and buy these (where they started).

Internet is full of people that worship Elon and judge everything by that measuring stick and call everyone else dumb because they made a different choice in a different circumstance. I have met a lot of smart people in my days. Enough to know I am not one of them. I am sure anyone in here has a reasonably respectable job and is fairly smart. But I don’t think CEO of GM got that job by accident. A little humility would go a long way. She aspires to catchup with Tesla. So what? So does VW and every other EV makers. Give me a break.

They built their largest plant in Texas the home of oil, so they really want to help the states that will suffer the most.

Do you really think that is why they moved there?

Maybe Ford, GM and Dodge could join forces to make a good skateboard and just pop their own bodies on top with Tesla FSD powering their autopilot.

Not a bad idea. FSD thing I am not sure, especially at $10K and unfinished.

The issue is CEO's without 20/20 vision are selling their workers down the road.

Do you prefer them selling their workers today? If I was an expert on timing of an internal combustion engine working for GM, I much rather if they told me you have until 2030 to learn how an electric motor works and keep your retirement package than if they told me pack up your things tomorrow and open up the office for the new electrical engineer.