Tesla Earnings Wednesday 25th

[Ogre]

Ok… earnings call is coming up. What are your thoughts on what we see?

The growth numbers were a bit low in sheer volume, but Sandy Munro seems to think margins are going to be sky high. We also have the potential for a big positive surprise with (potentially) high margin megapacks making some big waves.

Other potential catalysts to goose the stock are (not predictions so much as things which might goose the stock)

• Highland — The Model 3 reboot they are working on which is supposed to be more affordable to make.
• Gen 3 vehicle — There is an investor call on March 1st where this is to be discussed so maybe not?
• Cybertruck — Of course any positive news on the Cybertruck is awesome
• Huge margins — The big dip in prices suggests Tesla was raking in profits last quarter.
• Production increases — Good news on the Texas and Berlin ramps.

What do you think will be the big takeaway from the Jan 25th call?

 

[greggertruck]

How I THINK Cybertruck will go on call..... (if anyone cares)

"We are on track for mid year production still. March 1st we are holding a investor day event and will have more Cybertruck details there".

How I HOPE Cybertruck goes on call......... (no one cares)

"We already answered this, refer to the earnings deck. We are on track for mid year, details in the deck. It's a bad ass product"

 

[Ogre]

How I HOPE the Cybertruck gets mentioned on this call.

“We expect Cybertruck production will begin near the end of the quarter and if everything goes well customer deliveries will start in May”.

Because that’s the only way I see a truck in my driveway for Christmas.

 

[electricAK]

I think investors (retail and institutions) actually care a TON about the status of cybertruck production. There is a strong narrative that Tesla is going to need more models in its lineup to drive steady increases in deliveries, and cybertruck is huge part of that. The CT delays have taken away investor confidence that Tesla can produce and deliver at a 40-50% growth rate. They need a new model available, and they need it now.

Beyond that, I think what wall street cares about most is the guidance on a new low-cost model for mass market, details about current demand and price cuts, and delivery guidance being realistic but still strong (maybe shoot for 40% growth?).

I think the answers to those topics will be the big takeaways. Unless they unveil some new/exciting information about the CT that would steal the show.

 

[Richard V.]

I would also include to the list the ongoing results on the Megapacks Megapack | Tesla Canada
Tesla confirms Lathrop Megafactory can produce 10k Megapacks per year (teslarati.com)

New post as of 22nd Jan 2023 (It has started to expand...)
(925) Tesla Megapack | Lessines, Belgium - YouTube

 

[Ogre]

There has been a lot of noise since the first of the year on Megapacks.

Really hard to sort the wheat from the chaff. Tesla has a huge backlog of them and can sell them as fast as they can produce them. But what the margins look like and how fast they are ramping is a big mystery.

They are a potential dark horse winner this quarter. Maybe auto is within expectations and Megapack just blows everything away… or it might be sort-of meh like last quarter.

 

[Richard V.]

There has been a lot of noise since the first of the year on Megapacks.

Really hard to sort the wheat from the chaff. Tesla has a huge backlog of them and can sell them as fast as they can produce them. But what the margins look like and how fast they are ramping is a big mystery.

They are a potential dark horse winner this quarter. Maybe auto is within expectations and Megapack just blows everything away… or it might be sort-of meh like last quarter.

I think of Megapacks as Mega profits/margins. These factories will grow like weeds everywhere very fast. See here: (862) Tesla Lathrop MegaPack Factory Profits Greater Than Berlin Phase One Berlin in 2023 - YouTube

 

[Ogre]

I’m a bit skeptical of ZeroSumGame’s claims about the Megapack.

One of the big underpinnings of his claims about margins is some code which is “leaked” in their web code. This feels like a tremendously unreliable source of data.

There is definitely a lot of smoke here though. So long as production is around 2.5 GWH and margins are good, it should be a big contributor. Since it was break even/ operating at a loss before, a big deal.

 

[charliemagpie]

What we know is Tesla is aiming for around 1.5 GW by 2030.

Even if Margin is 20%

Even if they achieve half of 1.5 GW by 2030

Nobody is taking notice. Are the Megapacks we are seeing shipping out of Lathrop a mirage? Is the Energy goal by 2030 forgotten?

On the 25th, we will get very little... maybe a seed. Revelation will be March 1st.

 

[jerhenderson]

Ok… earnings call is coming up. What are your thoughts on what we see?



The growth numbers were a bit low in sheer volume, but Sandy Munro seems to think margins are going to be sky high. We also have the potential for a big positive surprise with (potentially) high margin megapacks making some big waves.



Other potential catalysts to goose the stock are (not predictions so much as things which might goose the stock)

Highland — The Model 3 reboot they are working on which is supposed to be more affordable to make.
Gen 3 vehicle — There is an investor call on March 1st where this is to be discussed so maybe not?
Cybertruck — Of course any positive news on the Cybertruck is awesome
Huge margins — The big dip in prices suggests Tesla was raking in profits last quarter.
Production increases — Good news on the Texas and Berlin ramps.
What do you think will be the big takeaway from the Jan 25th call?





2023 profits will be fat.
Tesla energy profit contribution and future growth might finally get attention.
CT production will help drive 2023 growth.... and profit.

 

[Ogre]

What we know is Tesla is aiming for around 1.5 GW by 2030.



Even if Margin is 20%

Even if they achieve half of 1.5 GW by 2030

Nobody is taking notice. Are the Megapacks we are seeing shipping out of Lathrop a mirage? Is the Energy goal by 2030 forgotten?

On the 25th, we will get very little... maybe a seed. Revelation will be March 1st.

I think you mean terra watt hours not GWh.

Aside from that I totally agree. I’ve just seen posts from ZSG claiming Tesla will hit 60-80% margins and that strikes me as off. You don’t get those kind of margins unless you sell software.

 

[charliemagpie]

yep

Even if we think the Profit is too high, customers recoup their investment in around 2-3 years.

If Tesla is making 50%, by the time cost of a Magapacks comes down to 'fair' levels, customers have made their money back anyway.

As a business case its win/win... Its highly likely Tesla is in fact killing it. !!

If so, this could continue for 10+ years.


If its so lucrative that it makes sense for competition to come running, but its a catch 22... Tesla will be far ahead competitively they can destroy the price point...new competition must tread with caution.

Telsa has their resources lined up, and is gearing for Mega business, They and CATL will be the only companies playing in the Energy stratosphere. Neither is going to give up maximum profits.

 

[Ogre]

I think the big thing with Tesla’s energy offerings is their software. The batteries themselves are reasonably straight forward, but figuring out when to suck and when to blow power into the grid is a tough problem.

 

[HaulingAss]

I think the big thing with Tesla’s energy offerings is their software. The batteries themselves are reasonably straight forward, but figuring out when to suck and when to blow power into the grid is a tough problem.

Artificial Intelligence to the rescue!

 

[Richard V.]

Artificial Intelligence to the rescue!

AI at Tesla is not to be neglected as a contributor to margins/profits. The "secret sauce" for their Mega factories is likely to be the use of their AI capabilities to help Tesla run/manage and uptimise the factories and their software. I recall Elon stating that the Tesla factories will be the hard part to copy.