A Really Good Q4 Earnings Call Question

[Ogre]

ROFL… just noticed one of their models still listed.

Talk about pointless variations on a theme.

 

[Crissa]

If all of the cars in their lineup were EVs. What is the point of having the Prius as a separate product line at all? A lot of this is just brands trying to appeal to slightly different demographics with slight variations on a theme.

The Prius is energy-efficient. Toyota has a different model name for 'Prius Performance' (Prime). And they have a different name for the 'Luxury Prius' (Lexus). And they have cheaper models, which Tesla also doesn't have. Names have power, but they don't mean you're not saving parts.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

The Prius is energy-efficient. Toyota has a different model name for 'Prius Performance' (Prime). And they have a different name for the 'Luxury Prius' (Lexus). And they have cheaper models, which Tesla also doesn't have. Names have power, but they don't mean you're not saving parts.

-Crissa

If all of their cars were EVs, there would be no point to have an “Energy Efficient” lineup.

The big question isn’t whether Tesla can get the volume they need with 2 models, it is whether they can get to the volume they need when their base car is selling for $45k.

My feeling is they will find ways to lower the base prices along the way. With the cost savings they will eventually realize in Texas, they have the headroom to lower prices a lot.

 

[Ogre]

Another random thought on FSD.

Our family needs 1.5 cars. You can’t buy 0.5 cars, but the vast majority of the time we don’t have conflicts. If our car could drop off and retrieve us, that would bring it down to needing only about 1.1 cars. Can’t buy 0.1 cars either.

So my thought here is buy a nice car which is *our* primary car. We enjoy it and don’t share it with the Robo-Taxi network. Buy a second car to fill that 0.1 car need and add that one to the Robo-Taxi network to make the car payments. When we need a second car, we have it. When we don’t, we aren’t making payments on a car which is gathering dust and costing us interest payments in our driveway.

So many cars get bought and spend 90% of their life collecting dust and getting slowly destroyed by the sun. Seems like such a waste.

 

[Crissa]

If all of their cars were EVs, there would be no point to have an “Energy Efficient” lineup.

That's not how energy works. The ID-4 is less efficient than the Model Y. By alot. And it may be possible to be even more energy efficient. Performance models aren't efficient. Bulky, fat models aren't efficient.

-Crissa

 

[Bob Anderson]

Back to the original question.

Why do car companies need 10+ models which are just tiny variations on a theme?

Look at Toyota’s home page (setting aside the Sienna). How many of these cars could be replaced by either the Model 3 or the Model Y? Half of these are “This is our energy efficient way to get from point A to Point B”. The other half are just variants on door placement How many slightly different configurations of 5 doors do you need?

Even the Supra can be replaced by the M3P.

Their SUV page has even more vehicles which can be replaced by the Model Y (Plus a chunk of bigger ones).

I think by 2024 they will be selling closer to 4 million vehicles/year, not 3 million.

To Toni's point, can there really be that much growth with only 2 vehicles? (and let's be honest, there isn't that much of a difference between 3 and Y anyway). I don't believe you need 15 different models, but I do it's important to have at least 1 vehicle in every segment in order to establish choice.

It might slow you down now to release another vehicle, but I see the slowdown coming in 2023/2024 if no new vehicles are released.

 

[Ogre]

I think by 2024 they will be selling closer to 4 million vehicles/year, not 3 million.

To Toni's point, can there really be that much growth with only 2 vehicles? (and let's be honest, there isn't that much of a difference between 3 and Y anyway). I don't believe you need 15 different models, but I do it's important to have at least 1 vehicle in every segment in order to establish choice.

It might slow you down now to release another vehicle, but I see the slowdown coming in 2023/2024 if no new vehicles are released.

Yeah, they need something in the mini-van/ large SUV size that is less than $100k.

I think the market is skewed pretty bad right now by the crazy demand/ supply mismatch. Prices will have to stabilize lower than here sometime.

 

[Crissa]

There's a ton of difference when you're sitting in a 3 or Y. A Y is 3" wider, longer, and 7" taller, with a fatter back end. They are unmistakable sitting near each other, unlike the Bolt EV and EUV.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

Buy a second car to fill that 0.1 car need and add that one to the Robo-Taxi network

Or: buy 1 car, and use someone else's Johnnycab for the 0.1 case

 

[Throwcomputer]

Yeah.. FSD sounds super cool. But i'd likely never buy it. I have terrible motion sickness.. I can become nauseous for days.

This is also me. Sure I may find FSD an entertaining feature that I might use occasionally out of entertainment and parlor trick value only, and I understand there are many who would solely use it if they could.. but you bring up another great overlooked subset of vehicle owners that is not a small amount of people. Those of us who physically cannot sit in a car they aren't actually driving and look at screens or read, or any other form of multitasking without becoming physically sick to their stomachs!

 

[Throwcomputer]

Sort of like he projected his personal belief that EVs were the future onto the rest of the planet?

Often the best ideas are things that few people say they want before they happen.

Musk sees the number of fatalities on the road and the source ** 99.999% human error ** as fundamentally solvable. Much like he saw emissions from ICE vehicles as fundamentally solvable. This is the big piece Musk is trying to solve.

It’s not about enjoying driving. You can enjoy driving in some circumstances, but recognize many parts of driving are mundane drudgery. I love driving windy mountain roads. But after a 2 hour drive, navigating the highways of Portland (or any city I’m largely unfamiliar with) in the dark and the rain and trying to follow the instructions the computer gives me is not my idea of fun.

Anyhow. I’m no FSD salesman. It’s been “Next Year” for 5 years running and while it looks closer. It might be close to fulfilling it’s ADAS role. But Robo-Taxi—the piece which would get you the 5x he’s talking about—is likely another 3-5+ years out. Very hard to spend money based on that when he’s been so bad about deadlines to this point.

That is not entirely a good comparison, because the concept of ev being the future of transportation is a technological shift, whereas the concept of literally everyone preferring fully autonomous shuttling around in their personal vehicles is a psychological and behavioral shift. Elon Musk can most definitely usher in a drastic technological shift, but Elon Musk most certainly cannot usher in a behavioral/psychological shift in the vast majority of individuals.

Take your example of long distance driving for instance. You personally, and a great many people absolutely hate driving longer than 2 hrs. My sister and brother-in-law are in your camp. My brother-in-law is in the camp of he wouldnt drive 2 minutes if he could have his car drive him 100% of the time. My father, and myself.. absolutely LOVE to drive long distance. I refuse to even use cruise control even at the end of 20 hours straight driving. Why.... because I prefer/enjoy to drive... even when my back and foot are sore as f. I understand and appreciate the need for it for many people, but you would literally have to force it on me by making it the only option... which Musk has presented that idea of removing steering wheels completely. And in that case, I would most likely not purchase a Tesla despite preferring their vehicles.. precisely because I would rather drive my own vehicle.

My point which the arguments in favor of life savings/ease/what have you refuse to admit is there will always be people like my father and myself.. because human nature doesn't fit into a box that Elon Musk really wants it to fit into.

Science Fiction is Science Fiction for a reason.

 

[Ogre]

That is not entirely a good comparison, because the concept of ev being the future of transportation is a technological shift, whereas the concept of literally everyone preferring fully autonomous shuttling around in their personal vehicles is a psychological and behavioral shift. Elon Musk can most definitely usher in a drastic technological shift, but Elon Musk most certainly cannot usher in a behavioral/psychological shift in the vast majority of individuals.

Finding places where this is useful and highly desirable is trivial. No psychological shift needed.

My mom won’t drive after dark because her vision is poor. ** LOTS ** of older people are uncomfortable driving but continue to do so because it is their only means to get around effectively. This is a huge problem.

I’ve fallen asleep behind the wheel on long drives (fortunately just an “Oh shit” moment but still not good).

Take your example of long distance driving for instance. You personally, and a great many people absolutely hate driving longer than 2 hrs. My sister and brother-in-law are in your camp. My brother-in-law is in the camp of he wouldnt drive 2 minutes if he could have his car drive him 100% of the time. My father, and myself.. absolutely LOVE to drive long distance. I refuse to even use cruise control even at the end of 20 hours straight driving. Why.... because I prefer/enjoy to drive... even when my back and foot are sore as f. I understand and appreciate the need for it for many people, but you would literally have to force it on me by making it the only option... which Musk has presented that idea of removing steering wheels completely. And in that case, I would most likely not purchase a Tesla despite preferring their vehicles.. precisely because I would rather drive my own vehicle.

My point which the arguments in favor of life savings/ease/what have you refuse to admit is there will always be people like my father and myself.. because human nature doesn't fit into a box that Elon Musk really wants it to fit into.

Science Fiction is Science Fiction for a reason.

You admit that there is a market for it… but your counter argument seems to be that people like you will make the roads dangerous regardless?

Would you prefer the guy driving next to you reading a book or texting his friends at his destination is doing it with FSD or while they are controlling their car? People are going to do stupid things and if they drift into your lane and kill you, it won’t matter if it was legal or not.

A big part of science fiction is exploring the repercussions of possible futures.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Finding places where this is useful and highly desirable is trivial. No psychological shift needed.

My mom won’t drive after dark because her vision is poor. ** LOTS ** of older people are uncomfortable driving but continue to do so because it is their only means to get around effectively. This is a huge problem.

I’ve fallen asleep behind the wheel on long drives (fortunately just an “Oh shit” moment but still not good).


You admit that there is a market for it… but your counter argument seems to be that people like you will make the roads dangerous regardless?

Would you prefer the guy driving next to you reading a book or texting his friends at his destination is doing it with FSD or while they are controlling their car? People are going to do stupid things and if they drift into your lane and kill you, it won’t matter if it was legal or not.

A big part of science fiction is exploring the repercussions of possible futures.

I'm not against it's wider adoption in society, but I'm against blanket statements and beliefs that because humans drive their own vehicles they are inevitably dangerous and that full automation is somehow the magic solution to the odds of danger. Some people are inherently dangerous, some accidentally put themselves into dangerous situations, some end up in them by pure luck regardless of their efforts to reduce dangerous situations. Full Automation will reduce the low hanging fruit of stupidity.. only if they are forced to adopt it, but in itself won't wipe out 100% danger and cases of injury. 100% transition won't happen even remotely close to our lifetimes. 100% safety will never happen. This goes back to my original argument that basing the "cost benefits" of the increased costs of vehicles due to some accounting magic related to FSD usage is invalid because FSD is not a mandatory uniform form of transportation now or in the near future.

I think it's a bit beyond the typical technological idealism into borderline fanaticism in this community the weight and importance being applied to fsd.

I am a technological idealist who tries to ground this with realism. I also believe as I have said above, people are going to hold onto their personal preferences regardless of any idealistic beliefs and arguments in this space.

I think we agree on a lot regarding Tesla, musk and the CT, but this is not one of them. I respect your optimism, but don't share it. I'll bow out of this topic.

 

[Ogre]

I think you are upset/ disagree with something I don't think I said or that I said poorly.

If you like to drive. drive.

So long as you aren’t doing it distracted or impaired I don’t care.