Elon Musk working on Master Plan Part 3

[Crissa]

I think it's a crossing lines, thing. When will autonomy be widely available vs when they get battery costs down.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

I think it's a crossing lines, thing. When will autonomy be widely available vs when they get battery costs down.

I think that kind of connects the dots actually. They are crossing lines, but it’s not the cost line.

When battery day came out, FSD was struggling and it seemed like they were close with the 4680 cells. Turns out 4680 cells were a year further out than they thought and in the mean time demand for EVs just completely lit on fire.

If EV demand falls through the floor, they might push out a lower cost Model 3 with 4680s and a structural pack to stoke the fires, but there is a strong chance FSD will be out the door by then.

I’m not entirely sold on Musk’s FSD will reduce car sales and eliminate the need for cheap cars… but there is a strong chance we’ll see that play out one way or another.

Also, this all breaks down a lot in rural areas and a lot of America is rural. Not sure what the chances someone from the mountain town 30 minutes up the hill will have of catching a Tesla to come down the hill for a Costco run. Lots of poverty up in the hills.

 

[Crissa]

If they could make $25k cars, they'd have filled the 50k car demand ^-^

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

When someone replies before my last edit is in.



Yeah.

 

[Crissa]

Elon's point is that instead of three 25k cars, one 50k with autonomy could be doing the same rounds. Even in poor areas, the ability to buy multiple 25k cars could easily be replaced by a robot - no driver needed to get it to and from customers.

Of course that means the biggest new job is washing autonomous cars while they charge.

-Crissa

 

[FutureBoy]

Also, this all breaks down a lot in rural areas and a lot of America is rural. Not sure what the chances someone from the mountain town 30 minutes up the hill will have of catching a Tesla to come down the hill for a Costco run. Lots of poverty up in the hills.

It kind of depends on how you are defining rural. The vast majority of the US population is living in metropolitan areas of one kind or another. My guess would be that robotaxis would work fine even in most towns down to a population size of maybe 10,000. With lower populations though, the ratio of long vs short trips skews much more towards long and the distance between ride drop offs to next pick ups gets much larger.

But it will take time for enough robotaxis to get built so that there are enough available to cover these rural situations. And even if we get “full” coverage here in the US, the market is truly worldwide. So there will be no end to the need for more robotaxis till the whole world has access.

Now some robotaxi uses might get lessened by Optimus. For instance, Optimus could walk down to the local grocery store and shop for your groceries without you needing to use a robotaxi. Perhaps Optimus can push/pull a small grocery cart.

So the big question in my mind will be around what chance there will be for other companies to compete with Tesla AI. If Tesla is the only true game in town, it’s going to take a while to get enough gigafactories built and then robotaxis and Optimus robots to get built.

Short term, batteries are the real limiting factor. But once enough batteries are available the limitation will be production numbers. But by that point, if there is no real competition for Tesla, it will be very difficult for competitors to ever get a solid footing.

I’ll be curious to see what other companies can develop a real world general AI within a reasonable time frame.

And of course this all depends on Tesla actually being successful in building a true general AI.

 

[Tinker71]

Everyone should take a minute to read Tesla’s Master Plan Part Deux

https://www.tesla.com/blog/master-plan-part-deux

Some of what y’all mention (I believe a van is covered under section 2) is already covered there.


Thanks for suggesting I read that. Great read.

The vehicle he mentions is really a small bus without a center corridor. I would imagine 11-14 passenger max. Somehow with super easy access to all seats. This makes sense with continual route optimizing, this system will get people much closer to their destination much faster than public transport. This might not pick you up at your door, but way closer than the bus stop system.

I don't see this as a high volume vehicle, but Tesla might make the platform available to contractors and people who want a traditional van.

The Tesla bus, plus Tesla robo taxis, plus the app will revolutionize urban transportation and the urban environment. Traffic will easily half. Half of the parking lots could be turned to parks or additional housing. Most traditional busses will go away. All but the most efficient rail based systems will probably go away as well.

The app itself and AI to run it will be amazing.
-Do you have any large items that won't fit on your lap?
- How many passengers?
-Enter destination. Choose 5 minutes for $5, 10 minutes for $3 or 15 minutes for $2
-You will need to walk 2 blocks to your final destination, do you accept?
-Walk 3 blocks east on main. A blue models S will pick you up in 4 minutes.
-You were late to your pickup location and delayed you rideshare. $2 will be added to your trip charge. Your reliability rating is now .98.
-Bob, your rideshare was late and apologizes for your delay. Your cost for this trip has been reduced by $1. (Bob looks at phone, then at you. Head nod)
-Your time estimate to your destination is 12 minutes.
-Stan. We detected a foul body odor. This is your first warning, you will not be able to use the Tesla transportation network if you don't eliminate this body odor.

This system won't work as well with less density, but with lower cost of housing, less pollution, less traffic, more social entertainment opportunities, I could see migration back to the city and out of the suburbs.

I could go on and on. This is profound.

 

[TruckElectric]

Dave Lee

 

[Crissa]

@Tinker71 , your quote is munged. It needs a [/quote] tag and some formatting help ^-^

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Ogre. We detected a foul body odor. This is your first warning, you will not be able to use the Tesla transportation network if you don't eliminate this body odor.

A little edit for you above. I know where you were going with that.

Nice post, you should fix the quote tags like Crissa suggests (or just get rid of them and edit out my comment) so it’s easier for everyone to read.

On the one had I see how RoboTaxi (and RoboVan) could revolutionize travel, but on the other hand I’m still quite skeptical. Lots of problems to solve here. How do you road trip with RoboTaxi?

It is a very interesting possible future. As opposed to EVs which I see are an inevitable future at this point.

 

[Crissa]

Same way you road trip with a rental vehicle. U-haul solved that how long ago? You rent it for a longer period. It just knows the destination and duration this time.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

Same way you road trip with a rental vehicle. U-haul solved that how long ago? You rent it for a longer period. It just knows the destination and duration this time.

-Crissa

That is a rental, not a “taxi”. A taxi service serves up travel, not a vehicle. A rental service serves up a vehicle.

A fair number of people might add their car to a RoboTaxi service where they can drive home in their own car at the end of the day or the following day. A service where your car disappears for a week at a time is a whole other agreement.

 

[Tinker71]

A little edit for you above. I know where you were going with that.

Nice post, you should fix the quote tags like Crissa suggests (or just get rid of them and edit out my comment) so it’s easier for everyone to read.

On the one had I see how RoboTaxi (and RoboVan) could revolutionize travel, but on the other hand I’m still quite skeptical. Lots of problems to solve here. How do you road trip with RoboTaxi?

It is a very interesting possible future. As opposed to EVs which I see are an inevitable future at this point.

Current mass transit will be quickly obsolete and Uber will get some serious competition when this goes live.

Many people will find it hard to give up the freedom of their personal vehicle but 2 and 3 car families can quickly drop a vehicle and some people already in the city might give up their rig.
The physical changes to the urban centers will be gradual over 2p
0 years or so.

 

[Crissa]

That is a rental, not a “taxi”. A taxi service serves up travel, not a vehicle. A rental service serves up a vehicle.

A fair number of people might add their car to a RoboTaxi service where they can drive home in their own car at the end of the day or the following day. A service where your car disappears for a week at a time is a whole other agreement.

The fleet won't care how long you rent it. There's no driver who needs to go home.

Of course... Some specific units may need to get back for other operations, like scheduled pickups and operation hours and maintenance or repair... but surely there will be some in the fleet that don't have a date coming up,

Current mass transit will be quickly obsolete and Uber will get some serious competition when this goes live.

Uber will crash hard. But mass transit has density and efficiency advantages. A line of robocars can only pick up and drop off so fast. They also consume more energy per passenger.

It'll make more sense to, say, when you go to the city or an airport or event, to take the robotaxi to the mass transit that goes to the venue. Like, at a look, or suburban hub. Then you step off straight into the venue instead of being stuck in traffic. And then you also don't worry about missing the last train, because when traffic dies down, the robotaxis will get freed up again.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

The fleet won't care how long you rent it. There's no driver who needs to go home.

Of course... Some specific units may need to get back for other operations, like scheduled pickups and operation hours and maintenance or repair... but surely there will be some in the fleet that don't have a date coming up,


Uber will crash hard. But mass transit has density and efficiency advantages. A line of robocars can only pick up and drop off so fast. They also consume more energy per passenger.

It'll make more sense to, say, when you go to the city or an airport or event, to take the robotaxi to the mass transit that goes to the venue. Like, at a look, or suburban hub. Then you step off straight into the venue instead of being stuck in traffic. And then you also don't worry about missing the last train, because when traffic dies down, the robotaxis will get freed up again.

-Crissa

Earlier I qualified all but the most efficient mass transit systems. NYC will probly be ok. SLC is one of the places with 5 people on 50 person bus. Our light rail is just starting to get good because high density housing is finally getting built near the stations. It only took 20 years.