Elon Musk Financial Times Interview (Includes some Cybertruck content)

[Jhodgesatmb]

Musk said at some point the may have to stop taking orders. Meaning :

We already have a 3-year delivery wait time. No doubt, during these 3 years., there will be more orders.

Will interest take off ?. From 2024, It ts entirely possible to get 300,000+ new orders per year.

Simple maths, in 2024, we may be already operating or in the process of building another CT factory. Not just the mini version, but for both.

---------------------
The other things I leaned from this :
Musk has more or less squashed the 1 million orders into 3 years.
Bodes well for people who are waiting for Duel and Tri.. There is a wait, but not 5 years. Most will be year 2 and 3. Not as bad.

Today a tiny puzzle piece.

How can you conflate a few words into all of these projections? The news about Tesla possibly stopping new orders was for M3 and MY that are already in production and backlogged, not Cybertrucks. You invented that. No doubt they will have more orders in the 3 years, but didn't they stop showing pricing on the Cybertruck months ago? And new reservations are just as likely to be cancelled for other trucks that come out earlier (e.g., I put a reservation in on a Silverado to cover myself but have no intention of following through - but Chevy is using that number to show huge interest).

What makes you think that Elon is squashing anything into 3 years. There has never been a confirmation from Tesla about how many preorders they have for Cybertrucks. Only a BS spreadsheet run by third parties. What we know is that Elon said they were targeting 250K cybertrucks per year and that they have more than enough preorders for 3 years worth of production. So more than 750K preorders. @Ogre would round that up to 1 million

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Musk didn’t hesitate for a second when asked if Tesla was worried about losing market share due to the delay. It was an instant “No”. He is extremely confident what they deliver will sell well. That tells me the value is still there.

If they deliver that value/ bang for the buck they shared at launch, sales are going to be just fine regardless of the take rate as new orders fill in the backlog. (Even if it’s reasonably inflation adjusted)

If you assume 80% of orders drop, Tesla still has more than 200k Cybertruck orders to keep them busy for 18 months. By then they will either have a pocket full of new orders or be rebooting the program.

That is an odd percentage to throw out. I would have guessed that maybe 30% might drop out in the normal course of things, and that maybe 20% of the rest might convert to another truck. That would still be over 500K. If it takes them a year to get up to speed, then that could be about 3 years of production.

 

[Ogre]

That is an odd percentage to throw out. I would have guessed that maybe 30% might drop out in the normal course of things, and that maybe 20% of the rest might convert to another truck. That would still be over 500K. If it takes them a year to get up to speed, then that could be about 3 years of production.

I was posting a worst case scenario, not making a projection.

Take rate depends almost entirely on how close to the original launch vision Tesla sticks.

 

[Ogre]

What makes you think that Elon is squashing anything into 3 years. There has never been a confirmation from Tesla about how many preorders they have for Cybertrucks. Only a BS spreadsheet run by third parties. What we know is that Elon said they were targeting 250K cybertrucks per year and that they have more than enough preorders for 3 years worth of production. So more than 750K preorders. @Ogre would round that up to 1 million

I beg to differ.

I far prefer facts to rumor and guesses. I get quite annoyed when people try and pass off their guesswork as fact.

I am guilty of speculation regarding the 3 year number. As I said above I just though it oddly specific. Totally agree that we don’t have a ton of visibility on actual preorder count. The 1 million+ number seems reasonable based on what information we have, but as you suggest the tracking spreadsheet is questionable.

I think Musk said 500k orders at one time way back in early 2020 and has been quiet since.

 

[Challeco]

Well, they've had trouble with the Model X and S this last year, the two models still have really long build lags for standard models.

Not that I think that, but I just thought it up as a reason.

-Crissa

Fair point. My understanding is the Cybertruck is supposed to be the next iteration toward full automation/fewest parts/minimal human interaction build similar to the models 3 and Y. The models S and X are still relatively hand built.

 

[Ogre]

Fair point. My understanding is the Cybertruck is supposed to be the next iteration toward full automation/fewest parts/minimal human interaction build similar to the models 3 and Y. The models S and X are still relatively hand built.

Musk’s Magnum Opus. (His words not mine)

 

[Raebrek]

Tesla produced 17,834 Model Y’s 1st quarter 2021 at Shanghai and 4th quarter produced 88,621 model y’s. Keep in mind that Shanghai is still listed as capable of producing <450,000 building both models combined. Shanghai produced 484,126 in 2021. I think the cyber truck will ramp up ok when it starts production. 250,000 may very well be just the first target.

 

[charliemagpie]

How can you conflate a few words into all of these projections? The news about Tesla possibly stopping new orders was for M3 and MY that are already in production and backlogged, not Cybertrucks. You invented that. No doubt they will have more orders in the 3 years, but didn't they stop showing pricing on the Cybertruck months ago? And new reservations are just as likely to be cancelled for other trucks that come out earlier (e.g., I put a reservation in on a Silverado to cover myself but have no intention of following through - but Chevy is using that number to show huge interest).

What makes you think that Elon is squashing anything into 3 years. There has never been a confirmation from Tesla about how many preorders they have for Cybertrucks. Only a BS spreadsheet run by third parties. What we know is that Elon said they were targeting 250K cybertrucks per year and that they have more than enough preorders for 3 years worth of production. So more than 750K preorders. @Ogre would round that up to 1 million

I do not predict Tesla will sit on its hands. This is my opinion.

I am of the view that 250,000 CT's sold per year will make at least $20,000 profit each... 5 Billion profit per year.

I wouldn't expect Tesla to be complacent on the matter. Not only does Tesla have a backlog, it will also receive new orders. Barring constraints, Tesla will at least double production estimates imo. They will produce in China and Germany. imo That should be it for satisfying truck sales.


Yes. On the car front, we may be seeing a snowball effect. A million orders per year is getting exponentially bigger.
The speed of scaling up existing factories, and even building new factories, may not reasonably keep up. Freezing million/s of orders may be an option.

Goodness, what a problem to have !!!!

 

[SONNYDUT]

Elon knows these numbers, so when he said something he would say it on the low side. To me, it does not matter what everyone speculating. The factory have to be in place before production start. People always trying to make predictions they know nothing of and complain about it. I would sit back and wait for the truck. Not easy but I am still wait for mine.

 

[Crissa]

Tesla will lose potential truck market share

You would think that is a bad thing.
No it is good thing

ICE truck is a money maker
EV truck is a money Looser

Why?
Take
Rivian it is a EV truck and is under the water and will not float after 10 quarters
Ford has lost $ Billions on EV tuck
GM is losing $ Billons on trying to be EV tuck

Look at the Facts

EV and tuck is not a good thing. Every car company that can not build sedan EVs is trying to get Tesla to build CT
Why?
CT may bankrupt Tesla or at a minimum damage Tesla
and
That is what other ICE car company want and need.
Ok
Sounds covert! Ya maybe but look at the facts

Every EV is like that, though. They require batteries and new processes, which cost money.

Ford isn't in the black on their whole EV Mustang yet. either.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

It doesn't make any difference who builds a EV truck. The EV truck builder will loose $Billions on that EV tuck.
Now
You may say Oh Tesla is smart and can make it work.
No
Not Tesla Not Rivian Not GM Not Ford can make a profitable EV Truck.

EV and Truck is a bad idea.

This is exactly what people said about building an electric car.

Turns out it is profitable after all. Hugely so.

Literally… the exact same comment was made about electric cars every step of the way. Now it turns out Tesla has higher margins that Toyota and posted higher profits than Toyota, Ford, or GM this quarter. (There is a huge asterisk on that, but it’s still a valid point)

Two car companies that can’t make a profit on electric cars and a startup can’t make a profit on trucks. This is not surprising. But Tesla can and does make massive profits from their electric cars.

You greatly underestimate how much time/ effort/ engineering has gone into Tesla’s vehicles. It’s not simply “Tesla is smarter”. Nobody else has put that amount of effort into this.

Call me back in 5+ years when these guys have put the time and money into it.

 

[SparkChaser]

Ogre, is right, but let us not forget the CT is a huge improvement ( at least on paper so far) in manufacturing efficiency. The idea that a CT can be produced in 5 hours is big step up. The automation and process elimination will make the margin on this vehicle will be very good.
The potential for grown and additional vehicle lines like vans or transport vans will be the real growth market.
We Americans love our trucks and if the price of operation goes down then I can see more people driving this kind of vehicle.
Personally I would love a small vehicle like the Aptera or a EV bike, but first I need something I can use for the Truck I have now. It gets 20-25 mpg. The cost of operating the CT should be way below that.
Looking at the cost of the CT $50k for the one I want. I can't touch a ICE vehicle for that point. All good and all in the right direction for me. The icing on the cake is the beauty in not sending $$ to the Fossil Fuel cabals.

 

[Ogre]

Ogre, is right, but let us not forget the CT is a huge improvement ( at least on paper so far) in manufacturing efficiency. The idea that a CT can be produced in 5 hours is big step up. The automation and process elimination will make the margin on this vehicle will be very good.
The potential for grown and additional vehicle lines like vans or transport vans will be the real growth market.

The only Cybertruck we’ve seen have taken hundreds of hours to build.

I think it’s a fairly good bet that the Cybertruck will assemble much faster than any existing passenger car/ truck, but it’s just speculation at this point.

My feeling is that when Musk said the Cybertruck was his and Lars “Magnum Opus”, he was talking about the factory and not the truck itself.

We Americans love our trucks and if the price of operation goes down then I can see more people driving this kind of vehicle.
Personally I would love a small vehicle like the Aptera or a EV bike, but first I need something I can use for the Truck I have now. It gets 20-25 mpg. The cost of operating the CT should be way below that.
Looking at the cost of the CT $50k for the one I want. I can't touch a ICE vehicle for that point. All good and all in the right direction for me. The icing on the cake is the beauty in not sending $$ to the Fossil Fuel cabals.

I’m in the same ballpark. Not replacing an existing truck, but one I sold last year thinking my CT was coming sooner.

 

[John K]

Tesla will lose potential truck market share

You would think that is a bad thing.
No it is good thing

ICE truck is a money maker
EV truck is a money Looser

Why?
Take
Rivian it is a EV truck company and is under the water and will not float after 10 quarters
Ford has lost $ Billions on EV tuck
GM is losing $ Billons on trying to be EV tuck

Look at the Facts

EV and tuck is not a good thing. Every car company that can not build sedan EVs is trying to get Tesla to build CT
Why?
CT may bankrupt Tesla or at a minimum damage Tesla
and
That is what other ICE car companies want and need. They need time to checkup and bring Tesla down.
Ok
Sounds covert! Ya maybe but look at the facts

Tesla is successful at making profitable EVs. A truck is not particularly different based on its skateboard.

What is new to Tesla is the body construction technique, nothing to do with being unibody.

Why are you using Ford, GM and Rivian’s orange metrics as a comparison to Tesla’s apple performance? Metric is measured to peak or high average as a baseline. We do not lower baselines to feel good about underperformance.

 

[John K]

Yes
Tesla has made $ on EvSuv EvSedans but CT is impossible to make $ one.
Not that Tesla will give up on CT.
but
EvTruck is bad news and is sucking Rivian Ford GM dry. They are dreaming that EvTruck is the same as IceTruce and it is not! Tesla sees all of this. How Tesla is going to pull a rabbit out the hat?
I do not know? I do know EvTruck is a death sentence even EvSimi is bad EvCargoVan is bad.
Maybe
FSD tecnogly will some how bail out the CT but even with a FSD CT I think it is a $ looser.

What makes the CT impossible to earn profit? I am not in agreement. Data?