Bought TSLA stock today

[Mini2nut]

Stock up now on Tesla stock. Buy the dip!

 

[jerhenderson]

Personally I’m really hoping it can get down to ~ $110 where is should be imo so I feel value and not hype motivated

that makes no sense as Tesla is not just an automaker.

 

[SolarWizard]

that makes no sense as Tesla is not just an automaker.

you mean they make storage batteries, DC chargers and swag too? I had no idea thank you for the insight. As someone whos owned the stock since 2017 I had no idea.

 

[CyberT]

Crates with IDRA printed on them. It is slowly coming in.


I have $2,230 sitting in my account right now which will only get me 14 shares in the pre-market. Im holding out for a limit buy of $148.50 so I can get that 1 extra share lol.

 

[charliemagpie]

I just bought all the way down and have ended up with far more than I expected.

The way I saw it, it can drop another $50... and when things improve, go beyond $3000 by 2030.

If it does reach that high, what I may have missed, is irrelevant.

 

[jerhenderson]

apparently since you think it's overv

you mean they make storage batteries, DC chargers and swag too? I had no idea thank you for the insight. As someone whos owned the stock since 2017 I had no idea.

apparently since you think it's overvalued.

 

[JBee]

apparently since you think it's overv
apparently since you think it's overvalued.

EM thinks its overvalued.

 

[Crissa]

EM thinks its overvalued.

Was. When it was what, more than twice it is now?

-Crissa

 

[Cyberman]

Stock up now on Tesla stock. Buy the dip!

I bought the dip. Unfortunately, I think it was close to the top of the dip.
Makes me feel like !

 

[jerhenderson]

EM thinks its overvalued.

he said that quite some time ago.

 

[HaulingAss]

EM thinks its overvalued.

No one can say whether TSLA is over or under-valued at any given point in time because that requires us to know Tesla's future financial performance. At the current $150/share, Tesla is priced for the competition to come in and eat Tesla's lunch. That is what most of the market expects to happen. But it's not what I see for a number of reasons which I won't detail here because I've said it all before.

At $150/share Tesla is priced for their energy division to never amount to much, for someone else to beat Tesla to autonomy and for their humanoid robot to never have much significance.

After 30 plus years of very profitable investing I've learned it's better to patiently build a position in companies that you think will have much higher valuations in the future, than it is to try to time the bottom. Because no one can time the bottom with regularity and it's impossible to say when market perceptions will flip. In my experience, the economy generally still looks pretty grim when the bottom is put in and things start to soar. All it takes is for some investors to think they see some light at the end of the tunnel and then sentiment turns.

Recent trading patterns make me think that there is a lot of smart money that thinks $150 is a good floor. That doesn't prevent sentiment from going lower, or market makers from taking it down to clear out the next band of stop loss orders or margin calls, so there might be one more quick and sharp push down to $138 to $142. Or there might not. My best guess is only the most nimble will be able to buy significant shares at those prices, assuming it even happens. And it takes balls of steel to do it because it always looks like the bottom is falling out when the price drops suddenly. So, what tends to happen is the bottom ends up looking like a deep "V". It happens very quickly, usually within one days regular trading session.

The other way this could reverse is a small gap up from here, perhaps to $160 or so, based upon the perception that Elon's distraction with Twitter has peaked, with a longer and more gradual climb to valuations more appropriate for a company with this much potential for bigger successes in multiple sectors/industries.

I thought TSLA started to look worrisomely over-valued as it started it's steep climb in October 2021 and I sold 25% of my position at prices around $750-$800 ($250-$270 split adjusted). However, after more than a year of impressive execution and the ramping of two brand new Gigafactories, including impressive output increases at GigaShanghai, I think TSLA is woefully undervalued at this time.

I'm not worried about continued recession, not because I think it can't or won't happen, but because TSLA can make EV's more efficiently than all the rest. So, while it's true that new car sales fall hard during strong recessions, a maker like Tesla has plenty of room to lower prices and still maintain strong margins. And people want EV's because they are beginning to catch on that it's a better ownership experience as well as being more fun to drive. The transistion to EV's is still in the early phases and people will be looking for the most value if the recession continues. The other manufacturers will be strongly unprofitable if they lower EV prices, they have no room to do so. This will expose Tesla as the low-cost leader in EV manufacturing that they are and they will continue to expand production and sell every car they can make. Remember, Tesla is only about 3% of global vehicle sales so they don't need to sell to entry level buyers to sell all they can make, they just need to offer good value in the market they sell to.

Don't try to time the market - buy value when you see it. You could get lucky with timing, but it's more important to build positions. I've learned this the hard way by watching exceptional investments walk away from me, thinking it would be cheaper if I waited.

 

[JBee]

No one can say whether TSLA is over or under-valued at any given point in time because that requires us to know Tesla's future financial performance. At the current $150/share, Tesla is priced for the competition to come in and eat Tesla's lunch. That is what most of the market expects to happen. But it's not what I see for a number of reasons which I won't detail here because I've said it all before.

At $150/share Tesla is priced for their energy division to never amount to much, for someone else to beat Tesla to autonomy and for their humanoid robot to never have much significance.

After 30 plus years of very profitable investing I've learned it's better to patiently build a position in companies that you think will have much higher valuations in the future, than it is to try to time the bottom. Because no one can time the bottom with regularity and it's impossible to say when market perceptions will flip. In my experience, the economy generally still looks pretty grim when the bottom is put in and things start to soar. All it takes is for some investors to think they see some light at the end of the tunnel and then sentiment turns.

Recent trading patterns make me think that there is a lot of smart money that thinks $150 is a good floor. That doesn't prevent sentiment from going lower, or market makers from taking it down to clear out the next band of stop loss orders or margin calls, so there might be one more quick and sharp push down to $138 to $142. Or there might not. My best guess is only the most nimble will be able to buy significant shares at those prices, assuming it even happens. And it takes balls of steel to do it because it always looks like the bottom is falling out when the price drops suddenly. So, what tends to happen is the bottom ends up looking like a deep "V". It happens very quickly, usually within one days regular trading session.

The other way this could reverse is a small gap up from here, perhaps to $160 or so, based upon the perception that Elon's distraction with Twitter has peaked, with a longer and more gradual climb to valuations more appropriate for a company with this much potential for bigger successes in multiple sectors/industries.

I thought TSLA started to look worrisomely over-valued as it started it's steep climb in October 2021 and I sold 25% of my position at prices around $750-$800 ($250-$270 split adjusted). However, after more than a year of impressive execution and the ramping of two brand new Gigafactories, including impressive output increases at GigaShanghai, I think TSLA is woefully undervalued at this time.

I'm not worried about continued recession, not because I think it can't or won't happen, but because TSLA can make EV's more efficiently than all the rest. So, while it's true that new car sales fall hard during strong recessions, a maker like Tesla has plenty of room to lower prices and still maintain strong margins. And people want EV's because they are beginning to catch on that it's a better ownership experience as well as being more fun to drive. The transistion to EV's is still in the early phases and people will be looking for the most value if the recession continues. The other manufacturers will be strongly unprofitable if they lower EV prices, they have no room to do so. This will expose Tesla as the low-cost leader in EV manufacturing that they are and they will continue to expand production and sell every car they can make. Remember, Tesla is only about 3% of global vehicle sales so they don't need to sell to entry level buyers to sell all they can make, they just need to offer good value in the market they sell to.

Don't try to time the market - buy value when you see it. You could get lucky with timing, but it's more important to build positions. I've learned this the hard way by watching exceptional investments walk away from me, thinking it would be cheaper if I waited.

Thanks for the long reply but I never have had any stock in a company I didn't run myself. So not really helpful for me. No point investing your own money in things you can't control. That's what other people's money is for, especially those that don't have any vision themselves.

 

[Arctic_White]

No one can say whether TSLA is over or under-valued at any given point in time because that requires us to know Tesla's future financial performance. At the current $150/share, Tesla is priced for the competition to come in and eat Tesla's lunch. That is what most of the market expects to happen. But it's not what I see for a number of reasons which I won't detail here because I've said it all before.

At $150/share Tesla is priced for their energy division to never amount to much, for someone else to beat Tesla to autonomy and for their humanoid robot to never have much significance.

After 30 plus years of very profitable investing I've learned it's better to patiently build a position in companies that you think will have much higher valuations in the future, than it is to try to time the bottom. Because no one can time the bottom with regularity and it's impossible to say when market perceptions will flip. In my experience, the economy generally still looks pretty grim when the bottom is put in and things start to soar. All it takes is for some investors to think they see some light at the end of the tunnel and then sentiment turns.

Recent trading patterns make me think that there is a lot of smart money that thinks $150 is a good floor. That doesn't prevent sentiment from going lower, or market makers from taking it down to clear out the next band of stop loss orders or margin calls, so there might be one more quick and sharp push down to $138 to $142. Or there might not. My best guess is only the most nimble will be able to buy significant shares at those prices, assuming it even happens. And it takes balls of steel to do it because it always looks like the bottom is falling out when the price drops suddenly. So, what tends to happen is the bottom ends up looking like a deep "V". It happens very quickly, usually within one days regular trading session.

The other way this could reverse is a small gap up from here, perhaps to $160 or so, based upon the perception that Elon's distraction with Twitter has peaked, with a longer and more gradual climb to valuations more appropriate for a company with this much potential for bigger successes in multiple sectors/industries.

I thought TSLA started to look worrisomely over-valued as it started it's steep climb in October 2021 and I sold 25% of my position at prices around $750-$800 ($250-$270 split adjusted). However, after more than a year of impressive execution and the ramping of two brand new Gigafactories, including impressive output increases at GigaShanghai, I think TSLA is woefully undervalued at this time.

I'm not worried about continued recession, not because I think it can't or won't happen, but because TSLA can make EV's more efficiently than all the rest. So, while it's true that new car sales fall hard during strong recessions, a maker like Tesla has plenty of room to lower prices and still maintain strong margins. And people want EV's because they are beginning to catch on that it's a better ownership experience as well as being more fun to drive. The transistion to EV's is still in the early phases and people will be looking for the most value if the recession continues. The other manufacturers will be strongly unprofitable if they lower EV prices, they have no room to do so. This will expose Tesla as the low-cost leader in EV manufacturing that they are and they will continue to expand production and sell every car they can make. Remember, Tesla is only about 3% of global vehicle sales so they don't need to sell to entry level buyers to sell all they can make, they just need to offer good value in the market they sell to.

Don't try to time the market - buy value when you see it. You could get lucky with timing, but it's more important to build positions. I've learned this the hard way by watching exceptional investments walk away from me, thinking it would be cheaper if I waited.

+1

Very well articulated.

At a $150 share price, TSLA is massively undervalued.

I do financial modeling for a living and based on Tesla's past performance as well as what they state in their filings, I suspect their EPS for 2023 will be $8 (diluted, GAAP).

Even at just 45 P/E, that's a share price of $360 by early 2024. I do not see any other stock that has this much upside.

But with that said, the P/E ratio is very dependent upon investor sentiment. And it's investors that really set the share price in the short-run. I strongly believe that you cannot time the market nor call the bottom. TSLA could drop to $120 based on technical analysis. Or it could not. But irrespective, $150 is a bargain price over the long run (3+ years).

I you need the money in the next 3 years, do NOT buy TSLA stock. If you're thinking long-term, there is no other stock that has as much upside as Tesla.

(Not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.).

 

[HaulingAss]

Thanks for the long reply but I never have had any stock in a company I didn't run myself. So not really helpful for me. No point investing your own money in things you can't control. That's what other people's money is for, especially those that don't have any vision themselves.

I don't watch professional sports for that reason. It's a waste of my time to root for my local or regional team because I didn't get to pick them.

However, stock investing is different. I pick the companies (teams) that I think will perform best, not over one week (game) but over the long run (season). I have a lot to base my decisions on, so it's not luck. Sure, I won't win every week (game), but if I picked the strongest companies (teams) then they are more likely to perform well over the long-term (season).

With sports teams, I could step outside my regional teams and pick ones on the other side of the country that I like better. At the end of the season, I still have wasted a lot of time because I don't get anything. Sure, I could place sports bets but the bookie adjusts the odds based on what other knowledgeable sports fans think. Worse, the bookie takes a rather significant cut of all the bets and so it's a net loss for betters overall.

In public stock markets, growth and productivity drive value. Stocks tend to go up overall because new value is being created as the economy grows larger over time. Companies in the S&P500 have appreciated, on average, around 8-9% per year for decades. Even if you know nothing, and throw darts to pick your stocks, you should average 8% per year and are able to compound that annually. That makes it very lucrative over the long-haul as long as the average rate of inflation remains below your rate of return.

I've invested only in the select companies I feel have the lowest risks and the highest potential returns and, doing this, I have averaged over 20% returns for over 30 years. You can turn ordinary savings into tens of millions of dollars with very little actual risk overall (once you average your gains and losses out). Sure, you actually have to save money to get started. But, if you stick with it, it will snowball on you until the point that you are no longer putting small amounts of money in, but are able to withdraw large amonts of money while still growing your account to ever higher values. I've been withdrawing money from my brokerage accounts to live on, to buy land, to upgrade houses and cars, to buy boats, etc. for over 20 years and it's still getting bigger. I do my investing research all in my spare time, for fun. And I no longer have to work, so I have lots of spare time. I guess I need to give myself another raise! Ha! That's a joke, I buy whatever I want.

All I can say is it's absolutely short-sighted to not invest for the future simply because you don't run any of the myriad of public companies yourself. You are not the only one who knows how to run a business and it doesn't matter when you have hundreds of well-run companies to select from and you only need to pick the best ones. Sure, you can try to grow your own business, but that is many times more risky than investing in companies that are already public. It also takes a lot more time. I considered running my own business many times but I'm glad I invested it and kept working instead. At least until I had enough to retire.

 

[JBee]

I don't watch professional sports for that reason. It's a waste of my time to root for my local or regional team because I didn't get to pick them.

However, stock investing is different. I pick the companies (teams) that I think will perform best, not over one week (game) but over the long run (season). I have a lot to base my decisions on, so it's not luck. Sure, I won't win every week (game), but if I picked the strongest companies (teams) then they are more likely to perform well over the long-term (season).

With sports teams, I could step outside my regional teams and pick ones on the other side of the country that I like better. At the end of the season, I still have wasted a lot of time because I don't get anything. Sure, I could place sports bets but the bookie adjusts the odds based on what other knowledgeable sports fans think. Worse, the bookie takes a rather significant cut of all the bets and so it's a net loss for betters overall.

In public stock markets, growth and productivity drive value. Stocks tend to go up overall because new value is being created as the economy grows larger over time. Companies in the S&P500 have appreciated, on average, around 8-9% per year for decades. Even if you know nothing, and throw darts to pick your stocks, you should average 8% per year and are able to compound that annually. That makes it very lucrative over the long-haul as long as the average rate of inflation remains below your rate of return.

I've invested only in the select companies I feel have the lowest risks and the highest potential returns and, doing this, I have averaged over 20% returns for over 30 years. You can turn ordinary savings into tens of millions of dollars with very little actual risk overall (once you average your gains and losses out). Sure, you actually have to save money to get started. But, if you stick with it, it will snowball on you until the point that you are no longer putting small amounts of money in, but are able to withdraw large amonts of money while still growing your account to ever higher values. I've been withdrawing money from my brokerage accounts to live on, to buy land, to upgrade houses and cars, to buy boats, etc. for over 20 years and it's still getting bigger. I do my investing research all in my spare time, for fun. And I no longer have to work, so I have lots of spare time. I guess I need to give myself another raise! Ha! That's a joke, I buy whatever I want.

All I can say is it's absolutely short-sighted to not invest for the future simply because you don't run any of the myriad of public companies yourself. You are not the only one who knows how to run a business and it doesn't matter when you have hundreds of well-run companies to select from and you only need to pick the best ones. Sure, you can try to grow your own business, but that is many times more risky than investing in companies that are already public. It also takes a lot more time. I considered running my own business many times but I'm glad I invested it and kept working instead. At least until I had enough to retire.

For me fiat currency is not a metric for value or wealth, at all.

I actively seek to reduce using currency for trade, because all money promotes uncontrolled, unsustainable and unethical behavior, through the liquidity of fossil fuel powered markets, and a economy that is designed to funnel to the top, by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the weak.

Let alone that money, with fractional lending money generation, as of itself only promotes lending for "profit", and ignores nearly any other benefit, both social and environmental, in the pursuit of making more coin. It's actually one of the main reasons we as a race are not sustainable and live in a artificial bubble that is no longer associated with the natural world, and does not have the environment on our balance sheets. It also disables the economy of choosing products and services that are sustainable or worthwhile (see EV production or going to Mars and "why" we haven't been able to afford it until now), because no one wants to pay the real cost to the natural world, and are only looking for a bargain to leverage somebody else's position to benefit their own.

Not everyone can just "trade" because if they did their would be no one left that actually makes or does something useful.

Having your own company(s) means work is being able to be productive in achieving your own ideas and goals for sustainable change. And then being able to teach and enable others, in particular the next generation, the principles on how to achieve sustainable goals in the face of economically induced environmental change. Having your own company doesn't make it successful either, neither is a company necessary at all, it's just a vehicle to allow you to maneuver in our economic systems with less resistance.

Overall, if we accept the reality that we are only temporary stewards of our realm of influence, our being only the DNA restructuring of dirt, and our existence dust to dust, then we can focus on supporting the next generation to achieve their goals and ambitions in a sustainable way. So that their offspring can also benefit from the progress they have made to mold the planet into a form that supports all life naturally and sustainably, and with as little as an impact as possible on the natural world.

If we don't at least try to share the same vision and goals for our combined future, then there will be no hope in achieving the mission of sustaining the light of consciousness, and by doing so "give meaning" to the universe. If only to ourselves, so that we can pursue our dreams and have something to live and strive for, all in an environment that also isn't persistently trying to bring about our premature demise.