Delivery dates of CT and Cybertruck Van

[firsttruck]

Ford’s profits primarily come from financing and leasing cars.

It is literally the only segment of Ford which posted a profit for most of last year.

The last couple years have been a bit of a windfall for them as used car prices have gone up so much so the value of their lease returns is higher than residual value. But imagine what happens when the cost of used ICE vehicles starts to go down and all of those lease returns are worth less than their residual value.

Great point about leases.

In U.S. if many leases for ICE vehicles are 3 years that already exist today.

Three years from now when Tesla U.S. is shipping annually two million model 3/Ys and 300K Cybertrucks in U.S..

VW, Hyundai, Kia, BYD (China), Polestar (China), Volvo (China), Xpeng (China), NIO (China) selling several hundred thousands of BEV sedans/SUVs in U.S..

BYD (China), Rivian selling tens of thousands of BEV pickups in U.S..

The buying public actually starts seeing BEVs around them and the Osbourne effect starts reducing sales of new ICE and used ICE.

What will happen to residual values of the leases for ICE vehicles that exist today in 3 years when leases expire?

 

[firsttruck]

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Chinese EV maker BYD, uses LFP batteries which don't use nickel so they are not effected by the scarcity or high price of nickel while GM & Ford will be hugely impacted.

The Chinese competition is coming is real not toothless like the legacy auto (GM, Ford, Stellantis, Toyota) is coming.

Chinese made BEVs are already on sale in U.S.

Volvos are now made in China.
They also make BEVs. Crossover C40 Recharge, SUV XC40 Recharge
https://www.volvocars.com/us

Polestars are now made in China.
https://www.polestar.com/us

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BYD EVs now available in 10 countries - Is the US next?
Nov 15, 2021
The Electric Viking

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BYD Dolphin electric city car coming to Australia with new name Chinese electric car brand BYD is breaking into the Australian market through local distributor EVDirect – and a new city car, badged as the Dolphin overseas, is said to be its second mass-produced offering.
By Alex Misoyannis
21 February 2022
https://www.drive.com.au/news/byd-dolphin-electric-city-car-coming-to-australia-with-new-name/

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Walmart Will Use BYD Yuan EVs... In Costa Rica When in the U.S.?
BYD continues its expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean, introducing its Blade Battery-powered models in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Uruguay, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica and the Bahamas. Most recently, the company delivered 29 BYD Yuan Pro EV (locally called S1 Pro EV) in Costa Rica to Walmart (Walmart de México y Centroamérica)
Nov 29, 2021
By: Mark Kane
https://insideevs.com/news/551263/walmart-byd-yuan-costa-rica/

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BYD Delivers 1,000th Pure-Electric Tang SUV in Norway
2021-12-21
https://bydeurope.com/article/409

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[Ed Harris]

 

[SAVFPV]

What is this ?

 

[Ed Harris]

What is this ?

I was told I was posting bad information that Tesla is working on a CyberVan when in fact they are working on a van and the CyberTruck. Here is a screenshot of the actual spreadsheets both are coming in 2023. CT starts late 2022 with limited production

 

[SAVFPV]

I was told I was posting bad information that Tesla is working on a CyberVan when in fact they are working on a van and the CyberTruck. Here is a screenshot of the actual spreadsheets both are coming in 2023. CT starts late 2022 with limited production

but what is the source?

 

[Ogre]

Now I’m dying to know… what is a D-Hatch?

Still skeptical, but if there was a van it would be very exciting. I would cancel my Cybertruck for the right van.

Doulby so if it were a CyberVan with decent off-road tires and the stainless outside.

 

[Ed Harris]

Now I’m dying to know… what is a D-Hatch?

Still skeptical, but if there was a van it would be very exciting. I would cancel my Cybertruck for the right van.

Doubly so if it were a CyberVan with decent off-road tires and the stainless outside.

Possible but Shanghai?
I would suggest that this is most likely a little 2 door with a hatchback that is on the table to be designed and built in Shanghai, aka Asia-Pacific. Just a guess as it is not going to be a van or a truck. But a D-Hatch. Trucks are too big in the downtown areas of China.
There are also many artist sketches out there for the van. I have no idea but if I was going to guess about the van, it would be a delivery van of some sort like for the post office? They do use fuel and they do sit around while mail is delivered. Then there are the local suppliers who do quite a bit of local deliveries. I am only guessing.

 

[Sirfun]

I was told I was posting bad information that Tesla is working on a CyberVan when in fact they are working on a van and the CyberTruck. Here is a screenshot of the actual spreadsheets both are coming in 2023. CT starts late 2022 with limited production

OK Mr. Harris, In the immortal words of Ricki Ricardo to Lucy. "You got some splaining to do"!!!!!!

What the heck are we seeing here?
Where did you get this?

 

[Ed Harris]

as

OK Mr. Harris, In the immortal words of Ricki Ricardo to Lucy. "You got some splaining to do"!!!!!!

What the heck are we seeing here?
Where did you get this?

I simply asked my friend if he had the ability to see when Tesla was going to start producing the CT. He just told me he would send me all the information that comes to him quarterly for the Tesla part. As I stated above when the CT was slowly ramping up but what was really interesting was the D-hatch that is being developed in the Chinese market. Then on the chart was the Van. I know nothing about it, but the chart says production is in 2024 in Texas. What kind of van??? I do not know but it's on the production chart. My chart does not show any meaningful production for the CT in 2022. He also told me that this is not a fact that it will most likely start sooner but in limited numbers. This is just a projection not factual until the assembly line is fully functional. As time progresses it becomes more accurate.
D-Hatch is China and also 4th Quarter of 2022 with limited numbers at 10,000
Everything he said was hinged on the ability to produce enough 46x80 batteries
What is not on the chart is the production of the Semi, strange as this chart is.

 

[Quicksilver]

Cybervan?

 

[Ogre]

Curiously saw this “leaked”.

EDIT: Not exactly. See the post below. Rest of this is left intact for posterity.

If nothing else, same source or one with a similar style. Also shows a Van from Austin.

I wonder if the van is also the RoboTaxi vehicle Musk mentioned.

 

[Ogre]

Regarding the above… looks like less a leak and more like some industry analyst’s estimates of what products Tesla will release.

So not a “Leaked” report at all.

The version which was sent on twitter was clearly edited from this, not sure why they made the particular edits they did.

 

[John K]

Regarding the above… looks like less a leak and more like some industry analyst’s estimates of what products Tesla will release.

So not a “Leaked” report at all.

The version which was sent on twitter was clearly edited from this, not sure why they made the particular edits they did.

I find completely credible Tesla will develop and ramp production of an unannounced van by 1/2/2024

 

[Ogre]

I find completely credible Tesla will develop and ramp production of an unannounced van by 1/2/2024

What I find odd is the dates. The idea that the van would start production only 2 months after the Cybertruck is a bit ludicrous. That doesn’t track with me at all. If they started production on CT in Austin in January, then having a van in production a year later might make sense. But not 2 months later. It seems far more likely at this point that they would put a second Cybertruck line in well before a new product there.

Also, the original tweet I posted said it was a leaked document. It clearly is not.