Delivery dates of CT and Cybertruck Van

[Dusty]

...If the production is that low it would be unlike any production ramp Tesla has ever had. . .

Yeah. I'd wager that the CT initial production will at worst resemble the Model 3 ramp, which was terrible but still resulted in 2500 cars per week by week 12 and 5000 per week 14 weeks after that.

Things are going to get out of hand quickly... Even if Ford started delivering F150 Lgts tonight their "lead" will be dwarfed by the 3rd month of CT production

 

[Ogre]

Yeah. I'd wager that the CT initial production will at worst resemble the Model 3 ramp, which was terrible but still resulted in 2500 cars per week by week 12 and 5000 per week 14 weeks after that.

Crack me up up everyone remembers that Model 3 was “Production Hell” and they envision Tesla mired for months at a time fumbling out 10 cars a day or something terrible. The reality—as you suggest—is they produced about as many cars in the first quarter than Ford managed with the Mach E in their first year. Because Detroit is “Good” at manufacturing.

I know… different problems, but fewer cars is fewer cars.

 

[Dusty]

What cracks me up are sites like Jalopnik that think legacy auto is going to overtake Tesla or people are going to keep buying gas cars. Ford, GM, and the rest have volume plans that don't materialize until the end of 2025 at the earliest (with no delays). They think they're going to get away with trickling out EVs at a combined total of never more than 100k units per year for the next 3 years... all while hemorrhaging sales to Tesla who will be closing in on 3-5M units per year in 2025.

There's going to be so much crow eaten Q1 2024 you'll think it's the new chicken.

 

[Ogre]

What cracks me up are sites like Jalopnik that think legacy auto is going to overtake Tesla or people are going to keep buying gas cars. Ford, GM, and the rest have volume plans that don't materialize until the end of 2025 at the earliest (with no delays). They think they're going to get away with trickling out EVs at a combined total of never more than 100k units per year for the next 3 years... all while hemorrhaging sales to Tesla who will be closing in on 3-5M units per year in 2025.

There's going to be so much crow eaten Q1 2024 you'll think it's the new chicken.

I suspect Ford at least is migrating their product line as fast as they possibly can.

The numbers they give to investors are likely just as much to keep people from freaking the hell out as anything else. Most investors do not quite get the existential threat electrification represents. To legacy auto. If Ford was to educate them overmuch, it would be a rough ride.

So regardless of what their actual plan is, what investors hear is “Our very profitable ICE division is going to be around for decades to come”. What he tells Doug Field may well be vastly different. “Move as fast as you possibly can” might be uttered.

 

[Quicksilver]

Some of the renditions of a Cybervan posted here blow and some are pretty cool.
My favorite is the cargo van with no rear windows. I would prefer sliding doors on the sides and barn doors on the rear.
My little EV-200 Nissan is a cargo van with no rear windows. When I purchased it we were hauling a lot of high dollar video equipment to filming locations and security was a concern.
I actually wanted rear windows but if you got rear windows you couldn't get cruise control. I never figured out that reasoning but I favored the cruise control over rear windows.
My guess is a cargo version would not be insulated in the rear but that could be remedied with spray foam.
I don't do a lot of camping but it would be nice to be able to stretch out in the back for a nap while on a road trip and be warm or cool while using the minimum amount of juice.
I guess we will see what's coming down the pike as they get Austin ramped up for Model Y and CT.

 

[charliemagpie]

Ford (or GM) would have 80-100 million used cars driving out there. Amazing when you think about it.

They don't disclose, but I read 30% of their income is from parts.

Without this parts' income, I'm guessing the profits from new car sales is miniscule… for some models, it may even be negative.

So you would have to wonder if they are making any money off EV's at all.

It's possible, Gm or Ford are banking their yearly diminishing parts income will keep them alive till they learn to manufacture at a profit.

______________________________

To add.

A 10% downturn in ICE sales will lead to an eventual 10% drop in parts income. True.

You could think they have a reasonable degree of space and time.

Death comes quickly.

The first 10% hurts... the second 10% drop tightens your expenses, closing factories, shedding staff.
The 3rd year, you are extending your supplier credit to survive.

By the 4th year, you are liquidating.

2026

 

[firsttruck]

Ford (or GM) would have 80-100 million used cars driving out there. Amazing when you think about it.

They don't disclose, but I read 30% of their income is from parts.

Without this parts' income, I'm guessing the profits from new car sales is miniscule… for some models, it may even be negative.

So you would have to wonder if they are making any money off EV's at all.

It's possible, Gm or Ford are banking their yearly diminishing parts income will keep them alive till they learn to manufacture at a profit.

______________________________

To add.

A 10% downturn in ICE sales will lead to an eventual 10% drop in parts income. True.

You could think they have a reasonable degree of space and time.

Death comes quickly.

The first 10% hurts... the second 10% drop tightens your expenses, closing factories, shedding staff.
The 3rd year, you are extending your supplier credit to survive.

By the 4th year, you are liquidating.

2026

Yes, legacy auto OEMs make most profit on parts
The missing piece in the logic above is that legacy auto OEMs do not make most of the parts.
The legacy auto OEMs buy the parts from suppliers and then add huge markups.

In the transition it is the parts suppliers that will fail when they lose sales to legacy auto OEMs for the parts for new vehicles. The legacy auto OEMs will have no parts to sell.

Once the parts suppliers fail there will be shortage for repair parts.
Total Cost Ownership ( TCO ) of used ICE vehicles will skyrocket.

New EVs will have TCOs less than many used ICE vehicles.

 

[Ed Harris]

could think they have a reasonable degree of

I am not sure whether your Detroit pedigree changes anything with respect to the veracity of your sources or the production predictions. If the production is that low it would be unlike any production ramp Tesla has ever had. Just look at the brand new Model Ys coming out of Austin now. In a few weeks they have produced hundreds of cars that are visible to anyone (let alone how many are in the building). Tesla always ramps up slowly but they start with hundreds per week and ramp up to thousands per week in a year's time. Elon said they have a target run rate of 250K CTs per year and that is about 5,000 cars per week or almost 1,000 cars per day. What no one knows is when they will begin production at all but it is pretty safe to say that once they do it probably won't be less than 1,000 per month and might take a quarter to reach 5,000 per month. These are complete guesses and have nothing to do with my Detroit (area) heritage.

Battery constraints is what I am concerned about. I don't see us digging out of this mess until middle late 2023. Hundreds of thousands of batteries go into storage facilities to help reduce peak demand all over the world. Then there is the Simi. I don't know how many packs are in them but the number of batteries has to be huge. So back to my first two words. Battery Constraints.

 

[Sirfun]

Battery constraints is what I am concerned about. I don't see us digging out of this mess until middle late 2023. Hundreds of thousands of batteries go into storage facilities to help reduce peak demand all over the world. Then there is the Simi. I don't know how many packs are in them but the number of batteries has to be huge. So back to my first two words. Battery Constraints.

Simi, otherwise known as Simi Valley is a suburb of Los Angeles in Ventura County.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simi_Valley_(valley)

Maybe you meant Semi.

 

[charliemagpie]

Battery constraints is what I am concerned about. I don't see us digging out of this mess until middle, late 2023. Hundreds of thousands of batteries go into storage facilities to help reduce peak demand all over the world. Then there is the Simi. I don't know how many packs are in them but the number of batteries has to be huge. So back to my first two words. Battery Constraints.

Battery supply will soon outstrip the pace of production

watching someone's vid the other day, it was reported Shanghai has the capacity to supply an EXTRA 5000 battery packs per week.

It wont be long before Shanghai production catches up to that number, but there will also be more batteries for them from the new CATL factory.


And we have Austin producing soon.. So the increasing flow will not be disrupted.

Yes.. There is current disruption… maybe we would have already produced an extra 20,000 Semis. But their rollout is planned. There is no speculative shortage beyond the plan.

 

[charliemagpie]

Yes, legacy auto OEMs make most profit on parts
The missing piece in the logic above is that legacy auto OEMs do not make most of the parts.
The legacy auto OEMs buy the parts from suppliers and then add huge markups.

In the transition it is the parts suppliers that will fail when they lose sales to legacy auto OEMs for the parts for new vehicles. The legacy auto OEMs will have no parts to sell.

Once the parts suppliers fail there will be shortage for repair parts.
Total Cost Ownership ( TCO ) of used ICE vehicles will skyrocket.

New EVs will have TCOs less than many used ICE vehicles.

Damn good point

Some will blindly continue working till the lights suddenly go out and creditors stop supply. Smaller suppliers will wallow in diminishing orders. This is the winding down scenario most people would envisage.
It's an ugly scenario which has happened many times.. When Tariffs/quotas changed, increasing imports.... we lost many manufacturing industries.

But smarter operators will be looking closely on how to manage themselves out, and this may create a fatal blockage, and bring about the domino effect faster than imagined.

 

[nomadmusk]

I'm actually putting a second set of eggs in Ford's basket. I'm still 80% on Tesla stock, but I don't see why Ford is drastically lower then gm when their product line and plans are more promising and grounded.

Does anyone know what I could expect to come from the company's separation into Ford blue and model e? Does that mean I'm investing in the ice part of the business or are they both under Ford stock?

I need something to invest in during Tesla's highs, and rivian and lucid will have their pants down for a while. If only I could figure out how to invest in Hyundai too.

 

[Quicksilver]

I'm actually putting a second set of eggs in Ford's basket. I'm still 80% on Tesla stock, but I don't see why Ford is drastically lower then gm when their product line and plans are more promising and grounded.

If I had stock in any Legacy automaker I would drop it like a bad habit.
If I had 100K right now I would buy Tesla while the price is below a thousand bucks a share.
Ford might be able to eventually make EV's at a profit but if they do it will be by locating the new plants in Right to Work states and kicking the UAW to the curb.
Treat the employees like Tesla treats theirs and give them incentives to make the best possible products.
I think Ford has seen the writing on the wall and are attempting to salvage something out of the looming train wreck headed their way.

 

[anionic1]

Spreadsheet updated Feb 22, 2022. CT very limited production with less than 20-30 a week starting in 2022 ramping up slowly. Full production numbers start in 2023 with 77,000 built, that year. Then for 2024, 157,300 are the production numbers projected. It looks like my 324K number is delivered in 2025.
The Cybertruck Van is slated to start production in 2024 with almost 26K units built that year.
Of course the new agreements to build batteries for Tesla will come into play for 2025.

Elon clearly said they aren’t focusing on any new vehicles this year.

 

[Ogre]

Yes, legacy auto OEMs make most profit on parts

Ford’s profits primarily come from financing and leasing cars.

It is literally the only segment of Ford which posted a profit for most of last year.

The last couple years have been a bit of a windfall for them as used car prices have gone up so much so the value of their lease returns is higher than residual value. But imagine what happens when the cost of used ICE vehicles starts to go down and all of those lease returns are worth less than their residual value.