Popular Mechanics: Does Anyone Even Want an Electric Car?

[FutureBoy]

Does Anyone Even Want an Electric Car?
Deloitte’s new report forecasts a messy future.

BY JOHN PEARLEY HUFFMAN
JAN 12, 2022

MICHAEL SILUK

Whatever the technological promise or pitfalls of electric vehicles, the real challenge lies in getting consumers eager to buy them. And that’s proven to be at least as difficult as making batteries last and building out a comprehensive charging infrastructure. A new report from the big-time, grownup-pants Deloitte consulting firm indicates just how big an undertaking that is proving to be.

Deloitte’s “2022 Global Automotive Consumer Study” goes into granular detail about the buyer expectations that will drive the automotive market in the coming years. It’s all based on a survey of 26,000 consumers in 25 countries. Road & Track has been reliably informed one of those countries is the United States, which is still located in North America. The whole report is available at this link as a PDF.

Much of what Deloitte reports is unsurprising. People still vastly prefer personal vehicles over public transportation; are willing to embrace high technology as long as they don’t have to pay for it; still want to buy new vehicles in-person and not over the internet; and are fine with electric vehicles as long as they’re affordable and at least as good as those relying on internal combustion.

The big insights come with the subject of intentionality. That is what consumers expect to buy next. In the U.S., fully 69 percent of consumers expect their next vehicle to be powered by internal combustion. Another 22 percent will go for some sort of hybrid. But still, amid all of this, only about five percent of Americans expect their next vehicle will be a fully-electric, battery-fueled machine.

“Buyers expect their vehicles to be affordable,” explains Ryan Robinson, Deloitte’s Automotive Research Leader. “Fully 74 percent of those intending to buy an electric expect their next vehicle to cost less than $50,000. With the average price of a new vehicle already approaching $40,000, that’s a very narrow band for electrics.”

Right now, many of the electrics on the market are what Robinson describes as “halo” products. That’s to say premium vehicles that attract attention and sell at high prices, but aren’t intended to sell in huge volumes to average buyers. Will there be affordable and attractive electrics? Good question.

Governments are driving forward with aggressive plans for converting the vehicle fleet to alternative fuels. What prominently emerges from the Deloitte report is that ambitions are one thing, and reality is something else.

Other countries are more eager for EVs. In South Korea, for example, 23 percent of buyers anticipate next buying an electric. In China it’s 17 percent. In almost all countries, hybrids and plug-in hybrids seem to be gaining traction as alternatives to pure ICEs.

There are plenty of other indications in Deloitte’s report that what lies in front of us is a tumultuous vehicular future. “There are a lot of big, all-in bets being made,” Robinson asserts. “We’re right in the middle of a very messy time.”

 

[FutureBoy]

Umm.... I DO!!!!

Not sure about everyone else but I have wanted a full electric vehicle since before Tesla was even a company.

In fact, before EVs (OK cars, not golf carts) were more widely available, I purposefully bought hybrid vehicles in an attempt to promote the use of electric drive trains.

And I get that many of the EVs currently or soon to be available are in higher price brackets than many normal people can afford. But that is really a short-term problem. Prices have been coming down and will continue to become more affordable. At scale, EVs are going to be significantly cheaper than ICE vehicles. And after that, there will be a boatload of very cheap EVs that can be used just like current ICE compact cars.

 

[electricAK]

This article (and the report it's based on) may be super important when it comes to the traditional OEM's who have spent so much time creating an ICE culture that is 'superior' to EV's. Their customers have no idea that EV's are objectively better vehicles than ICE. And that's their own fault for not embracing better technology decades ago.

Luckily, Tesla doesn't have this problem. They have crazy demand that spreads through word of mouth and close contacts. Like the spread of coronavirus, this is an exponential process.

No other company has this organic exponential demand creation. Instead they will need to change the narrative through advertising. But the problem is, trying to prove their EV's are better will drive people away from the their ICE offerings, so that's a tricky and costly thing to do. Which is exactly why I won't be buying Ford or GM stock.

Either way, I suspect the narrative is quickly changing and this report will probably be laughed at in a few years.

 

[electricAK]

Sidenote: My mother just bought a new vehicle after getting fed up with maintenance issues on her current ICE. Before she went to the ICE dealership to trade in and buy a new one, I begged her to just test drive a Model Y. She refused to do it. No interest in even trying it out!

Isn't that crazy?

 

[CyberGus]

“still want to buy new vehicles in-person and not over the internet”

Let me guess…the survey was conducted via phone to people that have land lines? So, median age 60?

 

[CyberT]

Sidenote: My mother just bought a new vehicle after getting fed up with maintenance issues on her current ICE. Before she went to the ICE dealership to trade in and buy a new one, I begged her to just test drive a Model Y. She refused to do it. No interest in even trying it out!

Isn't that crazy?

My mom was in the market for a new car to replace her 10 yr old RAV4 last year. She asked what I thought about a hybrid, I told her Nope, don't waste your time with something that has 2 drive trains and to just buy a BEV and of course, I told her all about the Model Y.

A month goes by and she sends me a pic of her at the dealership buying a brand new ICE RAV4. I asked her "what about the Model Y?" She said that someone from work told her that BEVs were expensive and since I said not to buy a hybrid she bought an ICE instead............

I faced palmed so hard......

 

[CyberGus]

…I faced palmed so hard......

I was helping my mom over the phone troubleshoot the wireless connection on her iPad. Eventually figured out that she had enabled “Airplane Mode”. Wanna know why she decided to tap on the little jet plane icon?

“I thought it would go faster.”

Parents! Amirite??

 

[bob/lego/gamer]

Most people when I ask if they would like an electric vehicle they say yes but when it gets cheaper.....

 

[CyberGus]

Remember when everyone was outraged at the thought of being forced to use those hideous LED bulbs? Now, the only incandescent bulb in my house is inside my oven.

The geezer-Americans here, like myself, will also remember the sheer terror of having our vinyl and tapes taken away by these awful-sounding digital CDs.

Change Is scary

 

[Crissa]

The problem with this survey is the phrasing. I'm going to put it in comparison to Tesla, since the article implied it:

People would rather try before they buy. That doesn't mean a dealership. Tesla lets you test drive, so while they frame it against Tesla, it's not.

People would rather have instant satisfaction instead of waiting on an order. Duh. That's why Tesla raised their prices, so their buyers weren't waiting so long and becoming less satisfied.

People don't want to pay more for tech. No kidding? But less tech doesn't mean cheaper. This whole idea we should have less cruise control - just to be cheaper - is dumb in the era of EVs which already have computer-driven motors.

And most people 'expect' their next car to be ICE. Also no kidding? People don't expect EV prices to come down, their abilities and availability and charging points to increase. We see this all the time here, on this board, where we all intend for our next truck to be EV! 'Expect' is different than 'want'.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

I do not think that many people actually do the math on their next car. For me, I promised myself that every car I got would get 25% better mileage. I drive SUVs. So 2 hybrids later I can no longer buy a car that will get 25% better mileage. I've hit a wall. I wanted a plugin hybrid SUV before my current hybrid but there were none in the SUV space yet so I held onto my RX. When I put in my Model Y reservation I first compared a comparably-equipped RX and found the prices almost identical. With the Model Y I would get a great car and blast my mileage promise, and that was just the sticker price. So when people ask me about electric cars I tell them that story. I expect them to do a similar amount of research (just compare the price of a new version of your current car to the price of a Model Y). They never do. I mean, we are talking about an internet search that would take, what, 2 minutes? And the result is virtually guaranteed to swing in the direction of the Model Y. So it isn't about any of the things we think it should be about. It isn't about price. It isn't about technology. It isn't about value, or longevity, or ecology. It is about fear of the unknown, and about listening only to other people that fear the unknown. But here is the thing. The more Teslas they see on the road the more questions they ask, and that is how it starts. Just think, if Ford, GM, VW, etc. build high-performing and reliable BEVs, all the fear will turn into purchases. Until they we just have to keep trying knowing that almost no one is listening.

 

[Newton]

Sidenote: My mother just bought a new vehicle after getting fed up with maintenance issues on her current ICE. Before she went to the ICE dealership to trade in and buy a new one, I begged her to just test drive a Model Y. She refused to do it. No interest in even trying it out!

Isn't that crazy?

not surprising, my mother who's under 60 by a couple years, is looking for a new car soon.
Obviously Im tryn to talk her into a EV but she is worried it will be too complicated to find charging stations, mess with the apps and screens, etc.
And honestly i can see why, she struggles changing the tv inputs, or video modes on her phone.

 

[Ogre]

Eh.

“Intentionality” or whatever is irrelevant. Actual orders on the book are relevant:

Tesla Model S: July (6 month)
Tesla Model 3: March (2 month)
Tesla Model X: January 2023 (1 year)
Tesla Model Y: July (6 month)

Cybertruck: 3+ year wait

That is relevant. This is after nearly $10,000 in price increases in the past year. Tesla’s production numbers are through the roof and most models have 6 month plus wait lists.

“People don’t want to spend more money for an electric vehicle”… until they’ve driven one and experienced it.

“People don’t want to wait”… except apparently the 200,000+ or so people currently waiting for Teslas?

The number of people who are willing to wait and pay more for Teslas is growing faster than Tesla can produce them. As Tesla’s production catches up with that number, Tesla can pull some levers and produce more affordable cars and trucks to keep the flow of vehicles going out the door.

 

[CyberGus]

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said electric horses.”
- Henry Ford

 

[Crissa]

.
“People don’t want to wait”… except apparently the 200,000+ or so people currently waiting for Teslas?

We are the minority of car buyers.

-Crissa