Tesla Announces Split Incoming (March 28 2022)

[Richard V.]

FWIW, below is my forecast from dec 2020.
I have used % as yearly increases based on my forecast profits... it's broad but reasonable, but the more time goes past, the more conservative I feel I have been.

I relate to Steven Mark Ryan and others who say it gets crazy. It could spike earlier if the market buys in. Regardless, eventually results will drive price. My true figure goes nuts from 2027.



Bottom line, I think you will get your wish

Btw I missed 2021 by $1 lol

V2. Dec 2020 Revised	US each
end	2020	$ 705 actual
end	2021	$ 1,058
end	2022	$ 1,851
end	2023	$ 2,776
end	2024	$ 3,748
end	2025	$ 5,059
end	2026	$ 6,830
end	2027	$ 9,220
end	2028	$ 11,525
end	2029	$ 14,407
end	2030	$ 18,008

Some people think the split could be 20:1 not the old 5:1 this time. In any case I do not think it will be a 5:1 split. Perhaps a 10:1, but I like the idea of a 20:1 split given the added value of the stock as many people you included are predicting. Take $1110 down to $55.50 in a 20:1 split. That would make Tesla stocks available to many. There are talks that Amazon is planning a 20:1 split soon.

 

[Ogre]

Some people think the split could be 20:1 not the old 5:1 this time. In any case I do not think it will be a 5:1 split. Perhaps a 10:1, but I like the idea of a 20:1 split given the added value of the stock as many people you included are predicting. Take $1110 down to $55.50 in a 20:1 split. That would make Tesla stocks available to many. There are talks that Amazon is planning a 20:1 split soon.

Don’t know myself. I could see reasons they might go either way.

If they only did a 5:1 split, it makes it a lot easier for them to issue additional splits later on which messes with the shorts a lot more than regular shareholders. Musk does not like short sellers at all and I could see him designing this to screw them over. In fact it could well be the primary motivation.

Authorize enough shares for a 20:1 split.

Issue a 3:1 split this summer. Authorize a 2:1 split next January after earnings. Authorize a 2:1 split in the fall after the Cybertruck ramp is successful. Each time the shorts have to rush to cover.

 

[Richard V.]

Don’t know myself. I could see reasons they might go either way.

If they only did a 5:1 split, it makes it a lot easier for them to issue additional splits later on which messes with the shorts a lot more than regular shareholders. Musk does not like short sellers at all and I could see him designing this to screw them over. In fact it could well be the primary motivation.

Authorize enough shares for a 20:1 split.

Issue a 3:1 split this summer. Authorize a 2:1 split next January after earnings. Authorize a 2:1 split in the fall after the Cybertruck ramp is successful. Each time the shorts have to rush to cover.

Interesting, I see what you mean about the shorts. I think, in the long term, the shorts will all be in trouble trying to bet against Tesla. I hope the Tesla stock volatility we have seen in the last year will go away now that Giga Berlin and Texas are online and running.

What about this modification:

Issue a 5:1 split this summer. Pre-authorize an up-to 3:1 split next January after earnings. Pre-authorize a 2:1 split in the fall after the Cybertruck and Tesla bot ramps are successful. Agreed, each time the shorts have to rush to cover.

 

[John K]

Don’t know myself. I could see reasons they might go either way.

If they only did a 5:1 split, it makes it a lot easier for them to issue additional splits later on which messes with the shorts a lot more than regular shareholders. Musk does not like short sellers at all and I could see him designing this to screw them over. In fact it could well be the primary motivation.

Authorize enough shares for a 20:1 split.

Issue a 3:1 split this summer. Authorize a 2:1 split next January after earnings. Authorize a 2:1 split in the fall after the Cybertruck ramp is successful. Each time the shorts have to rush to cover.

I never knew how ruthless @Ogre could be

 

[Ogre]

Issue a 5:1 split this summer. Pre-authorize an up-to 3:1 split next January after earnings. Pre-authorize a 2:1 split in the fall after the Cybertruck and Tesla bot ramps are successful. Agreed, each time the shorts have to rush to cover.

The company has a set number of shares. Each has a sort of serial number. The total number of shares is voted on by the existing shareholders. There are 2 “pools” of shares if you will.

* Outstanding shares — These are owned by shareholders.
* Treasury shares — held by the company and not issued to investors.

Tesla’s board can vote on a split without shareholder approval. But to split the stock, the board needs enough shares in the treasury to issue them to the shareholders. So if there are 1 billion shares outstanding, and the company does a 5:1 split, they need 4 billion shares in the treasury to issue to the shareholders.

Right now Tesla only has enough shares in the treasury to issue 0.9 shares for every share outstanding (from memory might be off). This announcement isn’t actually announcing a split. Tesla‘s board is having the shareholders vote to increase the number of shares in the treasury. Once that is done, the board can issue a simple vote to declare a “share dividend”/ split.

The board could request 20 billion shares be added to the treasury, then do a 5:1 split. That leaves 16 billion shares in the treasury. The board can do a simple board vote to declare another split at any time at that point.

Sorry this is getting long… point is, what you suggest would be entirely possible with a single shareholder vote. Once the shares are issued, additional splits are a simple board vote which are easier and can be done pretty much any time. The only reason we need this vote is because Tesla ran out of treasury shares.

 

[Ogre]

I never knew how ruthless @Ogre could be

I had to use because there is no maniacal laugh reaction.

 

[Ogre]

If we get 300 days like today, I’ll buy a Cybertruck for everyone who likes this post.

Alas… we are no closer even though 2 days have passed since then. Hopefully tomorrow.

I’m pulling for you guys even though it will cost me dearly.

 

[John K]

it is similar to watching water boil. We know the end state, just get there already.