??Q3 2023 Results Livestream ? -- Complete!! (Recap inside)

[Gurule92]

oh no i lost audio!

 

[Gurule92]

okay we back lol

 

[Gurule92]

"Cybertruck has a lot of bells and whistles"

 

[Gurule92]

Elon is going in on the WFH crowd lol

 

[Throwcomputer]

I believe he said 1/4 of a million a year in 2025. So, 2025 would be 250k/year

Damn.. at 43 yr old I been counting myself lucky I'd see my truck not too long away everytime one of the guys on here in their 70s and 80's says they not sure if they'll make it to get theirs. After this statement, now I'm looking like another 5-6 years wait on top of the 2 already waited. Now those concerns are looking like everyones concerns (those who didn't reserve in the first week or two). I'll be almost 50 before I see my truck! ?

 

[pricedm]

6:23p ET: Radar in S/X as test with no plans to expand models in test. Mentioned 3/Y but not Cybertruck on this topic.. Reinforced the vision versus radar "signal versus noise" issue.

627p ET: discussed near-failure in 2008 and needing financial aid to make payroll 12/24/2008 for 12/26 payroll. Yikes. Thankfully Tesla survived!

 

[Gurule92]

and we are done!

 

[Crissa]

Elon is going in on the WFH crowd lol

Yeah, his metrics are all wrong.

-Crissa

 

[Gurule92]

Ouch got skipped over for the feature lol

 

[cvalue13]

I believe he said 1/4 of a million a year in 2025. So, 2025 would be 250k/year

don’t confuse run rate with actual production in a calendar year

he said they would not reach a run rate of 250K until within 2025

and that they don’t expect to exceed a run rate of 125k within 2024 (eg a max of 2,400/wk run rate)

which means, generally, they will produce less than 125k during calendar year 2024, and less than 250k during calendar year 2025. How much less, exactly, depends on how quick the rate ramp is during the course of the year. If Feb 2024 they hit 125K rate and maintain it until a step-change jump of 250k run-rate in Feb 2025, there’s a lot of trucks made. If in Dec 2024 they hit 125k rate, and Dec 2025 250k run rate, there’s a lot fewer trucks made.

Notably, the gigapresses currently installed have a ~max run rate of ~250k/yr. And we can assume the rest of the line has been produced up to that threshold.

so the take-away, is that there are materials constraints, together possibly with line efficiencies, needing to be dealt with before getting to line volume sometime during 2025.

my take is they see a long-lead constraint in materials lasting through 2024

 

[Throwcomputer]

don’t confuse run rate with actual production in a calendar year

he said they would not reach a run rate of 250K until within 2025

and that they don’t expect to exceed a run rate of 125k within 2024 (eg a max of 2,400/wk run rate)

which means, generally, they will produce less than 125k during calendar year 2024, and less than 250k during calendar year 2025. How much less, exactly, depends on how quick the rate ramp is during the course of the year. If Feb 2024 they hit 125K rate and maintain it until a step-change jump of 250k run-rate in Feb 2025, there’s a lot of trucks made. If in Dec 2024 they hit 125k rate, and Dec 2025 250k run rate, there’s a lot fewer trucks made.

Notably, the gigapresses currently installed have a ~max run rate of ~250k/yr. And we can assume the rest of the line has been produced up to that threshold.

so the take-away, is that there are materials constraints, together possibly with line efficiencies, needing to be dealt with before getting to line volume sometime during 2025.

my take is they see a long-lead constraint in materials lasting through 2024

yeah. aka the battery production plant and lithium refinery wont be running full speed till 2025

 

[Gurule92]

6:23p ET: Radar in S/X as test with no plans to expand models in test. Mentioned 3/Y but not Cybertruck on this topic.. Reinforced the vision versus radar "signal versus noise" issue.

627p ET: discussed near-failure in 2008 and needing financial aid to make payroll 12/24/2008 for 12/26 payroll. Yikes. Thankfully Tesla survived!

I was kinda hoping to get radar back tbh.

Driving up to stopped cars was much smoother on my 3 than it is on my Y. Everyone in my car gets scared lol

 

[Crissa]

I was kinda hoping to get radar back tbh.

Driving up to stopped cars was much smoother on my 3 than it is on my Y. Everyone in my car gets scared lol

Radar is actually particularly bad at seeing stopped cars.

How it drives is a matter of programming, not sensors.

-Crissa

 

[Gurule92]

Radar is actually particularly bad at seeing stopped cars.

How it drives is a matter of programming, not sensors.

-Crissa

Autopilot doesn't get a lot of updates and the only thing I've seen change is the radars but whatever it is, I hope it gets adjusted. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't adjust it though. To incentives people to go toward that fsd package

 

[Crissa]

Autopilot doesn't get a lot of updates and the only thing I've seen change is the radars but whatever it is, I hope it gets adjusted. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't adjust it though. To incentives people to go toward that fsd package

Nah, I think Tesla only updates it with the most proven bits of software. Which is an excruciatingly slow process.

-Crissa