Post-Reveal Stock Price

[Crissa]

The point is that the government should meddle less overall in a market, but for that to be sustainable, we also have to make better decisions, and be held responsible for them if they fail. Classic case of trading security for freedom.

Now given the government has as EM puts it: "a corporation in the max with a monopoly on currency and arms to defend it", what choice does anyone have except to submit to the power of the coin?

The answer, of course, is more politics. The government is controlled by votes, by lobbying, by public appearances.

And meddling in markets is what it's for - markets don't choose the right thing, they choose the cheapest thing without regard for the future or for the commons. Gotta use the government to make sure your market is fair and honest.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

The answer, of course, is more politics. The government is controlled by votes, by lobbying, by public appearances.

And meddling in markets is what it's for - markets don't choose the right thing, they choose the cheapest thing without regard for the future or for the commons. Gotta use the government to make sure your market is fair and honest.

-Crissa

No.

Rather it is debasing the influence and control of fiat currency and replacing it, so that we have a valuation system and a asset allocation system based on reality, that has at it's core the best interests of all the inhabitants of the planet.

You can do away with governments if you have systems that work and are directly influenced by the environment and responds to the needs of the things that live inside of it. A government is only a manmade system, and at is core is just as expendable as any other system conceived by man. There are much more fundamental systems that have proven themselves over epochs, and this "new" invention, especially one that is being forced on a global scale, is the opposite of sustainable.

The economics of ecology in the natural environment already demonstrate that living systems can be fully sustainable and progress towards improvement even without consciousness. They have done so for millennia, and without it you would not even have evolution, nor even the ability now to perceive and understand it.

The principle is simple: Every good leader should make themselves redundant, if that is not their goal, then they aren't a good leader.

The fight starts with the battle against persuasive dead mans ideas that have long ago seen their relevance.

 

[Luftpilot]

@Tinker71 brought up an issue in another thread about what will happen to TSLA stock price after the 11/30 reveal. That got me thinking about selling some now and buying it back later.

So given the fact that nobody knows what will happen, what do you predict will happen to TSLA stock on 11/30 or 11/31?

My guess, given the cliff dive that the stock took after after the mild Q3 earnings call, is that no matter how great the Cybertruck will be at launch, it will “not meet expectations” of the press and TSLA will drop for a while. It was at $113.06 on 1/2/23. Maybe we’ll see that price again.

BTW, I have no credentials or skill at investing so my opinion is worthless. I’m just curious.

What do you think?

Is there 11/31?

 

[Tinker71]

I think that there have been enough "leaks" and "random sightings" that any supposed disappointment is already baked into the current price. Unlike the Q2/3 calls, just about everything is now known about the CT. I expect an artificial drop when there is some reasonably reliable data on how many orders are dropping out. As I said before, there are two ways to measure sales conversion. One is the way we normally think of it, X sales/Y pre-orders. But if you look at entities that have pre-orders, you get a different number.

If there are 100 pre-orders, and A has 30 pre-orders (a company), and B has 10 (A flipper) and on and on, you might only have 50 entities holding 100 pre-orders. If those 100 pre-orders convert to 60 sold CTs, we would say there is a 60% sales conversion rate. BUT if the ONLY orders that didn't convert were A and B, then you have 48 out of 50 entities convert their orders to sales, and a 96% conversion rate. I think this is far more telling from a corporate view, and considering the huge pre-order backlog, more indicative of an actual conversion rate. For those trying to figure out when they will get theirs, the first conversion rate is more promising, if not as accurate. It would be beneficial to know of the ~2M pre-orders, how many separate entities are there. Elon may have hinted at that in the recent past when he said "over a million". We might have a near 2:1 ratio.

So what number gets released to the public that they believe first? That will tell you if there is a temp dip, big dip, small spike, or sustained spike in the stock price. I also believe that the analysts you see on TV are a very small percentage of what moves the market. I think they try real hard to get you to THINK they have their finger on the pulse and their words move the numbers, but like most of the news, I think it's all their facade for the sake of advertising. I think the bulk investors (generic funds, retirement funds, etc.) probably don't hang on Cramer's every word, but are smart enough to make up their own minds. Q4 call may cause a spike either up or down depending on what data is released then. I think the lack of increase or decrease in interest rates hasn't hurt the price. I think the leaked info from Cruise may cause some to increase the discount on the price because they will assume FSD is further away, some may see this as moving the needle in Tesla's direction.

But all these thoughts are what day traders and short term people are fixated on. I think in the long term, TSLA will more than double in the next 24 months, will likely go 5x in the next 7 years, and could hit 10x in 10-15 years. If you're focused on the long term, that's all that matters, What happens today or tomorrow is meaningless.

Full disclosure: I have TSLA in my portfolio

None the less, he gladly, willingly, and open handed took them. Then after, he bites the hand that fed him for many years. Thank you for proving my point. That is all I was saying. Right or wrong was not my purpose, just the fact that it was done.

I don't think Elon was opposed to the original round of EV tax incentives. It allowed Tesla to reach critical mass and build out the supercharging network. This would have been virtually impossible without the government. Now that BEV is near price parity with ICE I would be fine without the IRA as long as the true cost fossil fuels (climate change mitigation tax) was baked in. If that was done no middle income family could afford a new ICE anyway and market forces would take over. But this will not happen in our polarized political environment. So the IRA is the best we have.

 

[Petertsai]

None the less, he gladly, willingly, and open handed took them. Then after, he bites the hand that fed him for many years. Thank you for proving my point. That is all I was saying. Right or wrong was not my purpose, just the fact that it was done.

It would be stupid for Tesla not to be at the Federal money spigot when they are eligible to put a bucket there. We receive the $4800 from the Federal government during covid and did not return it even though we did not need it.

 

[davelloydbrown]

@Tinker71 brought up an issue in another thread about what will happen to TSLA stock price after the 11/30 reveal. That got me thinking about selling some now and buying it back later.

So given the fact that nobody knows what will happen, what do you predict will happen to TSLA stock on 11/30 or 11/31?

My guess, given the cliff dive that the stock took after after the mild Q3 earnings call, is that no matter how great the Cybertruck will be at launch, it will “not meet expectations” of the press and TSLA will drop for a while. It was at $113.06 on 1/2/23. Maybe we’ll see that price again.

BTW, I have no credentials or skill at investing so my opinion is worthless. I’m just curious.

What do you think?

I have been holding tesla stock since 2015/ 2016 and the stock has been like a yo-yo since.

My personal opinion is that the stock will go up after the 11/30 reveal and currently the stock price is depressed so this could be a good entry point.

4th quarter sale numbers should be better than 3rd quarter so the stock may go up further at the end of December. However whenever the stock goes up, it is always 'buy the rumor and sell the news' so after the 4th quarter reporting, the short sellers get involved and the stock always seems to drop.

There will be no profit in CT production for at leat 1 year so the first and second quarter numbers may not be too good, depending on what happens with the macroeconomics IE recession and interest rates.

I got burned in 2020 when the stock went up and I wasn't holding, so I am a long term holder of the stock and when it goes up dramatically, I buy some puts to protect my downside.

 

[papajamaliciousness]

@Tinker71 brought up an issue in another thread about what will happen to TSLA stock price after the 11/30 reveal. That got me thinking about selling some now and buying it back later.

So given the fact that nobody knows what will happen, what do you predict will happen to TSLA stock on 11/30 or 11/31?

My guess, given the cliff dive that the stock took after after the mild Q3 earnings call, is that no matter how great the Cybertruck will be at launch, it will “not meet expectations” of the press and TSLA will drop for a while. It was at $113.06 on 1/2/23. Maybe we’ll see that price again.

BTW, I have no credentials or skill at investing so my opinion is worthless. I’m just curious.

What do you think?

imo one thing that is very predictable about Tesla stock is that fanboys speculate, expecting to make a fast buck. Another predictable thing is that Tesla opponents (including shorts, the oil industry, people from left to right (angered by his many statements that people from mutually contradictory positions would find offensive), not to mention the car industry and even moreso the legacy car industry lobbyists and the politically elected people under the influence of car industry money, and the media under the influence of car industry money, and all these forces deliberately try to drive the stock price down. Another predictable thing is that Tesla's market share is immense and the professionals in the market will try to mitigate losses that might be incurred by being forced to buy Tesla en masse at an inopportune time. Fanboy speculators will buy Tesla stock, with an amount of energy equal to billions of dollars, anticipating a quick boost on 12/1/23, and fueling the decline in the stock price when they selloff after the Cybertruck event.

I have tried in the past to make a fast buck speculating on things I thought were sure things with Tesla stock, like funds being forced to include Tesla shares, and that really didn't work out for me. However, betting on Tesla as a fundamental growth stock has worked out for me. Not saying I am or am not getting in just yet though. Have some other financial things to take care of and Tesla stock is a sideshow for me.

You see it for every earnings call, fanboy speculators expect to make millions every three months or every time some event happens. So, based on this one fact alone, I would say buy based on fundamentals and don't try to anticipate the movements of the bucking bronco that is the Tesla stock.

There is one thing that affects Tesla stock sometimes and people don't see it coming--spacex launches. When Spacex successfully launches their huge new rocket sometime next week (?), that might match up with a boost in Tesla shares. On the other hand if Elon shoots his mouth off some more that could easily threaten the value of Tesla at any time.

I'm starting to wonder if Twitter/X will actually fail. If so, then I would expect Tesla to lose some value.

Long term, avoiding short term speculation, investing in Tesla seems like almost a no-brainer, other than some key man risk. But the Cybertruck event? idk. Maybe buy if there's a dip after the event, fitting in to your long term fundamentals-based strategy. Right now seems like a dip. Maybe even better if there's more of a dip a couple days after 11/30.

Three things are near certainties. 1. There is a very well known personality who you can predict now will declare victory after the 2024 election, no matter what, even if it is crystal clear that it's a lie. 2. The servants of legacy auto will declare the Cybertruck reveal event a failure, no matter what happens. 3. (and most importantly) Tesla will make exponentially more money, year after year, *almost* no matter what.

So once again I say, who cares what happens to the stock price after 11/30. Long term, Tesla is a very good thing to own.

 

[C T Rick]

The key to making money in the market is simple. Buy it lower than what you sell it for.

Now that can apply to the day traders who get in and get out, or the ones that wait the year or longer. ( short term capital gains)

I’m into it for the long term. But in this particular case I’m also into it for No Risk. 3 years ago I sold 60% of my Tesla and retained 40% . The 60% covered my initial investment. Sounds good. But in reality had I held that 60% , I would have a CT for each day of the week.

Timing is everything, I had good timing in buying my initial investment, good timing in selling my 60% , but poor long term forecasts. Not complaining, just explaining that timing is everything.

Buy lower than what you sell it for and you’ll make money. How much is dependent on how much risk and how long you want to Time the market.

Tesla is volatile right now. The more you have, the bigger the roller coaster ride. Are you a roller coaster type of person? I’ve been on that coaster and not sure I can stomach another “E” Ticket Ride.

Good luck and good investing. I’ve got a plane to catch to Austin. My investment in Tesla came with the Golden ticket.

Yes, Timing is everything.

Rick

 

[Scott Beall]

Thank you all for the time you took for your thoughtful replies.

The stock market reminds me of pro sports. Some are players, some like to watch, and some gamble. I think you're right that TSLA will grow long-term and buy and hold is the strategy. It's just hard to watch these 10%+ ups and downs without wanting to play them.

It seems to me that the stock is affected more by what Elon says and does rather than the fundamentals of the company--at least short-term. I believe that the drop after the Q3 earnings call was mostly due to Elon's mood during the call than the info.

Maybe I'll sell a little after the rocket launch and buy after the reveal...

Oh, and:

"Thirty days hath September,
April, June and November;
All the rest have thirty-one,
Excepting February alone.
Which only has but twenty-eight days clear
And twenty-nine in each leap year."

Got it now...

 

[PilotPete]

"Thirty days hath September,
April, June and November;
All the rest have thirty-one,
Excepting February alone.
Which only has but twenty-eight days clear
And twenty-nine in each leap year."

Got it now...

I just count knuckles.

 

[Trbizwiz]

Are you kidding me?!? Tesla was built on government incentives and freebees! Musk always welcomed the EV handouts and then didnt contribute to the pot for many years! He contributed only when he sold stock to buy twitter, if not, his hand would still be extended, and we are stuck with the bill!

False, he contributed when he had stock options come due. He sold enough to cover his taxes. A few months later he sold some more to cover a down payment on Twitter.
Elon paid nearly $15 billion in taxes in a single Year. Thats the most ever by a single tax payer. I think we can stop hating Elon for not paying taxes.
Had Elon timed his Twitter purchase better, he could have avoided a lot of those taxes. He probably could have bought Twitter cheaper as well.

 

[cal]

Is there 11/31?

Sure just like there's an e in potato!

 

[HaulingAss]

False, he contributed when he had stock options come due. He sold enough to cover his taxes. A few months later he sold some more to cover a down payment on Twitter.
Elon paid nearly $15 billion in taxes in a single Year. Thats the most ever by a single tax payer. I think we can stop hating Elon for not paying taxes.
Had Elon timed his Twitter purchase better, he could have avoided a lot of those taxes. He probably could have bought Twitter cheaper as well.

Good points! Looking at complaints that Elon avoided paying taxes for years on a more fundamental level, I never understood all the hate directed his way. I mean look at the facts:

1) Elon didn't write the tax code.
2) Elon didn't lobby for the tax code to be the way it is.
3) Elon has always paid all taxes that were due from him.
4) Elon did not construct any artificial tax avoidance schemes, legal or illegal (unlike most billionaires).
5) I don't recall hearing of anyone paying taxes that were not yet due.

Yet still he was attacked. I think it goes to show that people don't like people who are so much better at generating wealth than they are. People hate extremely productive people because it makes them look slothful and lacking talent in comparison. People don't like to feel insignificant.

Society needs smart people like Elon who are not afraid to roll up their sleeves and make great things happen.

 

[silentRider]

@Tinker71 brought up an issue in another thread about what will happen to TSLA stock price after the 11/30 reveal. That got me thinking about selling some now and buying it back later.

So given the fact that nobody knows what will happen, what do you predict will happen to TSLA stock on 11/30 or 11/31?

My guess, given the cliff dive that the stock took after after the mild Q3 earnings call, is that no matter how great the Cybertruck will be at launch, it will “not meet expectations” of the press and TSLA will drop for a while. It was at $113.06 on 1/2/23. Maybe we’ll see that price again.

BTW, I have no credentials or skill at investing so my opinion is worthless. I’m just curious.

What do you think?

It sounds like what you're planning might qualify as a wash sale, so you would not see any benefit from this trade. Talk to your CPA before executing this trade.

 

[Scott Beall]

It sounds like what you're planning might qualify as a wash sale, so you would not see any benefit from this trade. Talk to your CPA before executing this trade.

Great point. This may be a good time for me to learn about options. As I understand it a Put would do the same thing and I don't need to fool with my existing stock. I'm just doing this to learn and am not risking any more than I can "comfortably" lose.