Optimus Bot Future

[Ogre]

Unlimited resource conversion, no currency at all required.

The problem is we don’t share well.

There are countries where there is an absolutely massive amount of resource/ wealth and there are still tons of poor people.

Often abundance has the opposite effect, the wealthiest people use the money to cement their power, go Into foreign countries and take control of resources there.

 

[CyberGus]

The problem is we don’t share well.

There are countries where there is an absolutely massive amount of resource/ wealth and there are still tons of poor people.

Often abundance has the opposite effect, the wealthiest people use the money to cement their power, go Into foreign countries and take control of resources there.

"In the year 2154, the very wealthy live on a man-made space station while the rest of the population resides on a ruined Earth."


I remember watching this film and thinking "yep, sounds about right"

 

[JBee]

The problem is we don’t share well.

There are countries where there is an absolutely massive amount of resource/ wealth and there are still tons of poor people.

Often abundance has the opposite effect, the wealthiest people use the money to cement their power, go Into foreign countries and take control of resources there.

I think we need to make a distinction between "share well" and greed. They are not the same, neither are we currently at that level of development that we can say "everyone is in excess of their resource needs or wants". When it comes to that time, many primal motivations will need to die.

When I say resource I mean that generically, not just resources from the ground in certain countries that make certain people rich. Any resource we need to thrive. Food, water, transport, manufacturing, mineral extraction, arts and culture, language even love etc etc. (Being the agape type)

The difference with an Optimus driven "unlimited labour" (or value added) driven economy is that by its nature, things of value will become things of so little value, they are barely worth being reimbursed in currency for. The cost will be the price of raw material plus the cost of manufacturing by Optimus and Co.

Take the Tesla FSD example; mobility on demand for cents on the dollar per mile.

Whats the point of owning a car if transportation is so cheap?

Remember that currency is meant to act as a lubricant to allow supply to meet demand. So it would be logical "if" supply always outweighed demand, currency would be irrelevant.

Like breathing, we won't have to pay a thing.
Think about this everytime you breath in.

The ownership fallacy plays a huge roll in our perception and idea digression here. The premise is that if you can own, you can trade what you perceive is yours for what is someone else's.

The truth is none of it is ours to start with, we are born with nothing and leave with nothing. All resources, for all life, are borrowed for a time and by extension our consciousness as well, without an exchange of ownership whatsoever in all eternity. We are recycled, remanufactured, reorganised and forever "our Stardust". ;-)

 

[Bob Anderson]

Genuinely curious honest question. What gives any of you faith this robot will be here in next couple years, let alone this decade?

 

[Ogre]

Genuinely curious honest question. What gives any of you faith this robot will be here in next couple years, let alone this decade?

I don’t think it’ll be in the next couple years. Or if it is, it’ll be anything more than robots doing the absolute most basic stuff in Tesla’s factories.

They might migrate out of Tesla’s factories in 5 year and still be limited to fairly basic things. Eventually maybe 8-10+ years out they will be a lot more interesting.

Interesting because it is potentially transformative.

Honestly, if this was coming from anyone else I’d just blow it off. But Musk has pulled off some crazy things people have said are impossible with both Tesla and SpaceX so it is very interesting.

 

[Bob Anderson]

I don’t think it’ll be in the next couple years. Or if it is, it’ll be anything more than robots doing the absolute most basic stuff in Tesla’s factories.

They might migrate out of Tesla’s factories in 5 year and still be limited to fairly basic things. Eventually maybe 8-10+ years out they will be a lot more interesting.

Interesting because it is potentially transformative.

Honestly, if this was coming from anyone else I’d just blow it off. But Musk has pulled off some crazy things people have said are impossible with both Tesla and SpaceX so it is very interesting.

Yeah, I think elons timeline of 2022 for fsd will be a couple more years, and if it's a couple more years for that, a robot will be even more.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, I think elons timeline of 2022 for fsd will be a couple more years, and if it's a couple more years for that, a robot will be even more.

Could be.

There are 60,000 beta testers right now with zero accidents.

The highly biased people that I follow say almost all of their trips are almost trouble free.

I am not as pessimistic as you, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it were delayed more either. I didn’t buy FSD because of it’s permanently delayed nature.

The robot has fewer challenges in order to be unleashed. It is lightweight and moves slowly. If it makes a mapping error, it might get knocked over or drop something. There are no regulatory hurdles blocking it either. Tesla could conceivably set up the robots in their factory next week with little risk.

The big challenge with the robot is making it useful enough to be sellable. The big challenge with the car is not killing people. Consequences are vastly different.

 

[charliemagpie]

We talk about replacing or enhancing our jobs…this is true. But it is much, much more. .... Beyond this:

What about having 5 million robots in each country picking up rubbish at night, or repainting road markers ?

The million things we don't do enough of , cleaning windows, trimming grass edges....

A manicured land where everyone is a king or queen.

 

[JBee]

We talk about replacing or enhancing our jobs…this is true. But it is much, much more. .... Beyond this:

What about having 5 million robots in each country picking up rubbish at night, or repainting road markers ?

The million things we don't do enough of , cleaning windows, trimming grass edges....

A manicured land where everyone is a king or queen.

Let's say they work 9 hour night shifts, and each task takes 3 hours each. Thats about 5.5 billion 3 hour tasks a year!

 

[Quicksilver]

Technology is a marvelous servant but a terrible master.
The budding technology we are discussing could change civilization for the better or it could ultimately lead to a total collapse into anarchy.
There are people that will not be pushed into doing something (adopting EV's) without a fight.
I can see people becoming anarchists and attacking EV infrastructure and maybe EV owners because they feel as though their choices are not their own anymore.
What happens if Big Brother decides none of us are capable of driving our own vehicles and mandates FSD be installed and used on every vehicle manufactured.
Any vehicle that could not be retrofitted with FSD would be banned from highways.
"Saving lives" has always been the mantra the Nanny State uses to protect us from ourselves.
Will free will be banned to protect the terminally stupid from their actions?
How much free will and freedom are you personally willing to give up for "safety", yours and other peoples?

 

[DPye_BC]

Consider this possible confluence: Tesla builds a number of bots and needs help training them to interact in the real world; an equal number of paraplegic people volunteer to get Neuralink implanted; they wear VR rigs and get to experience walking around in the real world through cameras and sensors on the bot; Tesla and Neuralink feed the resulting data into their respective NN training projects.

>Much of the movement and navigation could be ported from existing FSD in the cars.
>Self balancing and walking is a solved problem for bipedal robots.
>Upper body movement and overall arm movement can be detected by the VR rig, perhaps with additional trackers.
>Hand movement and finger control is simulated reasonably well by current VR controllers.
>The input data from the VR rig, and the resulting movement and sensor data in the bot could then be correlated.
>Voice input could be used to augment auto labelling. A trained volunteer could say what their intent is at key moments.

Tesla could do all of this in-house.

However, fine detail hand control is new, and Tesla likes to have loads of labeled sensor data to feed into artificial neural network training. That's where Neuralink comes in.
The brain's motor cortex area that relates to hand/finger movement is close to the area a single Neuralink can cover, so perhaps enough of it can be accessed to be useful. With two implants, a human volunteer could direct the movements of the bot hands, and ground-truth data from the human hands, the implant data and bot hand movement could be correlated.

This is a win-win-win for the Tesla AI team, Neuralink, and the volunteers.

What's missing is haptic feedback from the bot to the human. There is a lot of work being done in this area at lab scale, with gloves that can produce force, detailed touch and temperature feedback.

I'm not sure how this will affect the delivery of my Cybertruck - one can hope it will somehow compress the timeline. But I know, it's not about me.

 

[JBee]

Technology is a marvelous servant but a terrible master.
The budding technology we are discussing could change civilization for the better or it could ultimately lead to a total collapse into anarchy.
There are people that will not be pushed into doing something (adopting EV's) without a fight.
I can see people becoming anarchists and attacking EV infrastructure and maybe EV owners because they feel as though their choices are not their own anymore.
What happens if Big Brother decides none of us are capable of driving our own vehicles and mandates FSD be installed and used on every vehicle manufactured.
Any vehicle that could not be retrofitted with FSD would be banned from highways.
"Saving lives" has always been the mantra the Nanny State uses to protect us from ourselves.
Will free will be banned to protect the terminally stupid from their actions?
How much free will and freedom are you personally willing to give up for "safety", yours and other peoples?

My definition of technology is that it is a tool to leverage the environment to our will.
Every tool can be used and misused. You can use a hammer to build or demolish.

It is purely the intent of the user that is amplified through the leverage of the technology being used. It is not the tool itself, it is the intent and use of that tool.

I read an article about hypersonic sub-orbital Mach 15 cargo flights being cheaper than conventional airplanes, but because a Russian was developing the technology commercially the concern was that any of them could be used as weapons as their kinetic impact energies would rival thermonuclear warheads. Cars are not much different, if someone "plans" to go off the road and onto the sidewalk.

The question becomes should there be a sidewalk at all, or a road there, or should it be protected by a barrier, or by FSD. The original technology, namely "cars" is the primary cause of the safety issue, along with cascading system dependencies (roads, walkways, lights traffic management) but not free will or nanny state. in comparison by design people "can" play football and run into eachother without serious consequences. But running is exhausting. The primary function of cars is to transport people and things from location A to location B. A flying carpet is probably the best first principles version of that, being one surface that can translate it's position over another surface. How it goes about this task to fulfil the users intent, will change as technology develops and as costs dictate.

In our world of private ownership the only true freedom is the one we can afford. This means if we can't pay for it we don't do it. If we did we'd need to borrow (steal from our own future) or steal to do it. The rest of the freedoms, like the right to vote are but fallacies to satisfy the masses illusion of self determination.

This is where FSD is truly disruptive, because it makes transportation costs so low it makes other forms of transport no longer viable. It also is the reason why EM expects to NOT sell cars after FSD is available. Why would he if transportation is affordable for virtually everyone, and he can make more money from robotaxis at the same time?

This is the leverage of technology in action.

 

[charliemagpie]

Cars would have been ridiculed and scoffed at.

You can drive a few miles, and then it breaks down haha

You go a few miles, and your wife is waiting for you with a can of fuel haha

You have no more road. Does it have legs ? haha

_____________________________

It didn't take long for cars to build up all the infrastructure and overcome the millions of job losses in the legacy industry.

_____________________________

We are just stepped out of the ridicule phase. The pace ahead will be amazing. Not only EV and Autonomy


The Robot only has to do 1 thing efficiently. A degree better than what we have seen so far.

Move around an area and flip a burger.
Move around an area and carry a box
etc

This alone will make it production ready … worldwide. @ $30,000 rental per year.

As soon as we see the prototype, the longest line of companies we have ever seen will be clamouring to test it.