EV sales have doubled. Is a ‘tidal wave’ coming?

[JBee]

Your analysis exposes the fundemental flaw in your reasoning when you suggest that a 30% increase in electrical consumption requires a grid with 30% more capacity. That's not how grids work because you have to account for the time of use. The current grid is operated on a daily basis of around only 15% capacity (it varies by geographical area but is very low in all cases).


This is the whole idea behind the growing popularity of time-of-use billing, to encourage the increased utilization of existing assets (both generation and distribution assets). The cost per kWh of the infrastructure is totally dependent upon how many kWh it is delivering over time. EV's increase the utilization of grid assets so they provide more revenue per unit of investment. This is why it is not problematic to increase grid capacity 10% to increase revenue by 30%.

Time if use is my primary concern, because network only use a small proportion of what they can because they have to be able to supply peak power. I agree with that, but centralized generation or storage does not help reduce peak or improve network utilisation. And time of use "peak" power is ultimately the networks main constraint. I'm all for better utilisation of hardware, but for that you need a buffer to smooth, and they are not better in centralised locations but should also distributed to reduce line losses and at the same time increase local network capacity without a single new grid line being laid. Distributed and embedded generation does more than centralised in this scenario. at a lower cost. Especially if you use already underutilized resources in the form of V2X EVs.

While I agree that distributed systems are the best solution, and also the way things are moving, the distributed assets don't necessarily need to be owned at the individual level. In some cases that makes sense, but not in all cases.

Agreed, but in most household cases and many industrial cases distributed improves network and generation utilization, and allows for more embedded RE and a more resilient diverse electrical network.

For example, it makes sense to have roof-top solar (but not wind). Wind is more efficient the larger the turbine. It's a huge difference in cost/kWh and effort to maintain. And it's absolutely silly to use mobile batteries for grid scale storage, even when distributed. Cars need to be light and affordable - we don't want our energy storage systems driving around on the road every day when they are inaccessible or low on charge when you need them the most. Batteries are heavy and belong in dedicated packs at the sub-station level or situated in conjuction with grid-scale solar generation or high consumption facilities with uneven demand like fast charging stations. Battery packs in cars should be sized for the car, not for supplemental grid storage. I once believed that was a good idea too. Then I learned the specifics and was flexible enough to change my mind to align more closely with the reality of the situation. It sounds good at first blush but it's not the best answer to the need for energy storage.

This is exactly where the time of use argument is most important. For example: A lot of EV's charge slowly at night. But there is no solar at night. Wind is also intermittent and hardly as predicable or dependable as solar (depending on your latitude). Hydro and nuclear would be dependable dispatchable base load as would be fossils.

The question then becomes how do we intentionally make a network function so that it uses the least amount of fossil and nuclear, with the smallest amount of effort and resources.

I believe V2X EV's are that underutilized resource. They are dispatchable, inherently moveable assets and are available for large periods of the daytime when the solar is available (e.g. at work) and can take that energy home for use at night when it gets dark. They can also buffer SC use in small remote grids. They can buffer industrial loads at work, they can provide spinning reserve for network stability etc etc. All with the addition of a bidirectional charger at home and at work, all without physically requiring a major network upgrade to what is already installed.

That's a silly statement because it conflates the source of the energy with the use of the energy. Electrical energy can be converted to heat, light or motion. So can gas.

I could just as easily say: "The primary type of energy used in any household is heat. Not gas."

The same statement is also just plain wrong because in many households the primary type of energy is used for cooling (both refrigeration and air conditioning). It really depends upon the climate.

In the future (and to a more limited degree, in the present), electricity will be the most cost effective and the most environmentally friendly way to provide supplemental heat to a home. A heat pump can provide 3-8 times as much heat as the electricity consumed. Because it moves heat from where it is not needed or wanted (either underground or outside air) to where it is wanted (inside the structure). And it does it many times more efficiently than any type of gas (including bio-gas). Of course, in most climate zones in North America, passive solar with thermal mass storage is the most cost effective and environmentally friendly way to provide most building heating needs. This will be supplemented by heat pumps running on green electricity in the future.

This is exactly why I mention heat as the primary source of energy consumption in the household. If we reduce heat usage, we automatically reduce electrical consumption on the network, making V2X even more viable.

As you say we can use heat pumps but even better is stop wasting heat by having "leaky bucket homes" where there is not enough insulation or lack of air tight building envelope.

And with heat pumps and your own solar, it's possible to use a hydronic heating system to store heat energy instead of using batteries. All for the cost of a insulated tank to store hot or cold water in. And by using a hydronic system on a insulated house you can have days of storage in a water tank, without ever having to take power from the grid, meaning the V2X EV is even more available for grid buffering.

Space heating accounts for 43% of US household consumption, Water heating 19% that's 62% just for heat. Further to "remove heat" through Air Conditioning requires another 8%. That's 70% of energy use just for heat management, that could all be reduced or at a minimum produced appropriately to reduce demand on the grid.

This "heat consumption" is not an "electrical" problem, and shouldn't be dealt with as one. There are many other countries that empathize this more.

 

[JBee]

Trying to wrap my head around that. The EPS inside the SIPs is made from hemp? Or you used hemp for additional insulation?

I had asked our structural engineer for SIPS on the "normal" walls but he didn't seem to like them here in earthquake land. But for the most part, our house is straw bale walls (post and beam with 3 string bale (2 feet thick)) infill. R-45ish, all passive solar (heated and cooled). We have no HVAC at all. It works well. Most of our power usage is the electric appliances since I refused to have propane. The on demand (Steibel-eltron) water heater is the biggest offender, on my list to replace that with a heat pump tank water heater.

Both.
So the SIPS has EPS foam in between to layers of steel and then inside that we have hemp insulation. The reasoning is that hemp is a active insulator that also stabilizes humidity, which is a factor in sealed building envelopes that use forced heat recovery ventilation.

 

[Luke42]

That's FUD. I'm sorry.

Shoving liability and cost onto individuals and smaller neighbor groups is wasteful but it does net them more money.

-Crissa

He is likely correct for the electrical grid where he is in Australia. He's a proper EE, and isn't just saying this.

He said above that an O(350kW) will destabilize the grid he engineers. Though a full supercharger station is likely 3.5mW of intermittent demand.

That amount of power isn't that big of a deal out here in the in the American Midwest (MISO territory). We have data centers and factories which use that amount powers and it's not like the lights flicker when they start their equipment. If that amount of power is a grid stability problem is in JBee's neck of the woods, he's right to be concerned about it. That's a serious engineering challenge.

It's also one I don't face here -- or, at least one which the Ameren guys solve without me having to care about it.

The problem here is that nobody is explaining their context. Rural Australia has a very different grid than California, which is very different again from Illinois.

P.S. Illinois is starting a plan to go to 0 carbon on the foreseeable future. However, part of that plan involves state funding for our three nuclear plants. This wouldn't happen in either California or Australia. The engineering and political context is very very different, even though we all speak the same language.

 

[Crissa]

He is likely correct for the electrical grid where he is in Australia. He's a proper EE, and isn't just saying this.

He said above that an O(350kW) will destabilize the grid he engineers. Though a full supercharger station is likely 3.5mW of intermittent demand.

No, he's flat wrong, because they use megapacks to even out the demand.

He can't understand thermal mass, he screws up peak supply vs hours supply, and I'm just tired of his absolutes which are straight up misinformation.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

No, he's flat wrong, because they use megapacks to even out the demand.

He can't understand thermal mass, he screws up peak supply vs hours supply, and I'm just tired of his absolutes which are straight up misinformation.

-Crissa

A megapack setup will probably cost more than our whole grid does. It's only 25km accross with one main feeder, and most of which is single phase overhead power. BTW who's "they"?

You know I'm not in the USA right, and not everywhere is the same?

Dunno what you mean "screws up peak supply vs hours supply". Google comes up empty...but my Crissa filter tells me you mean "peak demand" and "base load"?

Please show me where I'm wrong so I can correct it. Thx.

 

[Crissa]

BTW who's "they"?

Tesla. No one else installs Superchargers.

How many things can you get wrong? It's annoying. Your microgrid is full of BS.

And you aren't important enough for Google to explain your own errors to you. And I'm done doing it.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

Tesla. No one else installs Superchargers.

How many things can you get wrong? It's annoying. Your microgrid is full of BS.

And you aren't important enough for Google to explain your own errors to you. And I'm done doing it.

-Crissa

If only Tesla installs Megapacks we'll never get one and without that no SC either unless we get V2X. Most of the time the manufacturers only get to come in for milestone check or commissioning before it goes online, and don't do the actual install. Thats normally subbed out.

I know my town microgrid can do 70% renewable energy without a battery or Tesla. How much does yours do?

 

[Delusional]

The flip side of this record. Adaption, not Adoption.
We are still inching up on "Infrastructure Constraints".

 

[Jstoltz54]

One of those rare headlines that is going to break Betteridge's law.



Musk is planning for and has been delivering exponential growth. Whether the rest of the industry is ready for that or not, it's pretty clean consumers are.

If the EV incentives pass, this whole side of the industry is going to explode.

Yep, looks to me like it’s underway but it has to be long and slow throttled by EV availability, which is good, it gives everything else time to implode slowly, giving a little time to pivot, adjust, or just step out of the way.

 

[TruckElectric]

Electric Cars: The Surge Begins
Paul A. Eisenstein
Contributor

Next year the number of all-electric models offered in the U.S. will grow from 13 to more than 50. Getty

New car showrooms in the U.S. should look a lot different by 2030, with battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids likely to make up more than half of the options among available models, according to many industry analysts. By next year alone, the number of all-electric offerings will quadruple, from 13 today to more than 50.

In just the last two weeks, startup Rivian began retail production of its new R1T pickup, while Fordconfirmed it is doubling initial production capacity for its own all-electric truck, the F-150 Lightning, set to launch in June 2022. Honda offered more details about the Prologue, the long-range model it will launch in 2024. And, as it prepares to launch production of its first model, Lucid received an EPA rating of more than 500 miles per charge for several of its Air sedan models from the EPA.

The market will soon be awash in entries from A to V, Audi to Volkswagen and Volvo, with new models from BMW, Cadillac, Ford, Genesis, Jeep, Mazda, Mercedes-Benz and, well, pretty much every automaker. And they’ll flesh out a broader range of product segments, and at a wider range of prices. While the Lucid Air Dream Edition will top $160,000, Nissan recently added a base version of its Leaf model that, after factoring in $7,500 in federal tax credits, starts at just under $20,000. VW plans to add a $25,000 version of the ID.4 once production begins at its plant in Tennessee.

On the whole, BEV prices are expected to remain higher than for comparable gas-powered models, at least through mid-decade, but the trend is downward as manufacturers bring new battery technology to market, according to research by the Boston Consulting Group. GM had said it expects to spend about $100 per kilowatt-hour for the new batteries it will use in products like the Hummer and Cadillac Lyriq, then this week said it sees the path to $60 per kilowatt-hour, down from $140 for the batteries in the troubled Bolt. A 100-kilowatt-hour battery in a large or high-performance vehicle would cost “only” $10,000.

President Joe Biden, one of the first to drive the Ford F-150 Lightning. Getty

Biden Administration Goal: 50% Electric by 2030
And Washington hopes to lend a hand. In August, President Joe Biden signed an executive order that calls for plug-based vehicles – including BEVs and plug-in hybrids, or PHEVs – to generate half of all U.S. new vehicle sales by 2030. To add some teeth to that plan, Congress is working up a new round of incentives that could grow to as much as $12,500 – though there’s been pushback on a provision that would specifically benefit models built in the U.S. using union labor which rules out all the New South factories.

The Biden administration wants 50% of vehicles to be electric—zero-emission—by 2030. There is pressure on the administration to order all vehicles by electric by 2035. If not, California, New York and other states might require 100% zero-emission by 2035. The path to 50% and 100% would both be reached if sales increase each year by 5% over the previous year’s EV sales.

Bringing down the hefty price premium will help address one of the biggest challenges to broader EV acceptance – as will rising range. At 520 miles per charge, the Lucid Air Dream Range model leapfrogs the current champ, the 402-mile Tesla Model S Long Range by more than 25%.

Of the dozens of new models coming to market over the next year, virtually all will top 200 miles between charges and “250 is becoming the norm, with more and more delivering over 300 miles,” said Sam Abuelsamid, the principal auto analyst with Guidehouse Insight. The highly regarded BMW iX SUV, the size of a soft-edged X5, projects 300 miles on U.S. ratings.

Steve Carlisle, the head of the Cadillac brand, earlier this year told Forbes Wheels that he expects to see Cadillac target 400 miles in the future – though its first BEV, the Lyriq, will come in around 300. This week, General Motors announced a next-generation battery “innovation facility” in Michigan, and said it sees a path not just to $100 cost per kilowatt-hour but to $60 (manufacturer costs for the battery cell material, not cost to the car-buyer). GM’s mid-term goal will be to have a manageable—size, weight—battery pack good for 500 to 600 miles at a cost 60% less than the cost of batteries in the Chevrolet Bolt EV and Bolt EUV.

GM’s Chevrolet Bolt (right) has been a sales leader in the EV segment. The automaker recently expanded the nameplate with the Bolt EUV (short for electric utility vehicle), which adds more legroom in the rear seats. Chevrolet

Not Enough Public Charging Plugs
There are still obstacles to overcome. The biggest, most experts agree is the lack of a ubiquitous public charging network. (That and current costs and range.) “More than 80% of today’s EV owners charge at home and are likely to continue doing that,” said Pasquale “Pat” Romano, the CEO of ChargePoint, one of the largest EV charging providers. But there is still the need to create a readily accessible public network of fast chargers for those who travel long distances, whether for work or play, he said.

As of now, there are about 43,000 public EV charging stations in the U.S., with around 120,000 charging ports, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. But the network is concentrated along the coasts, especially in California – which is by far the largest market for BEVs today.

In comparison, there are about 150,000 gas stations in the U.S. and an estimated 1.0-1.5 million pumps. The numbers aren’t comparable because gas/diesel cars outnumber EVs 98-2, a gasoline fill-up takes less than 10 minutes—but it can’t be done at home—while EV charging is 20-45 minutes for the fastest charge at a public facility.

It could take years to fill in the gaps in the nation’s heartland, but the process is getting under way. Congressional Democrats hope to secure funding for the nationwide network of 500,000 chargers sought by Biden. New York recently announced its own plan to fund a statewide network, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer this week said her state is developing similar plans.

Public charging will be better now that there are just two standards and two plug types for high-speed charging: Tesla Supercharger, plus DC Fast Charge that will be used by everyone else. Nissan EVs including the Leaf EV have used a third standard called CHAdeMO, but it had no significant non-Nissan support. For lower speed charging, 120 and 240 volts, there is more commonality and adapter plugs allowing, for instance, a Tesla to use a non-Tesla charger, and vice-versa. See Best Electric Vehicle Charger Adapters For 2021.

Wireless inductive charging as you drive: A transmitter coil is embedded in one lane of the roadway, a receiver coil is on the underside of the car. The car charges as it moves along. Inductive charging is also possible, in the future, in public parking spaces and home garages. Cornell University

Inductive Charging: Wireless Power, While Driving
EVs don’t have to be charged by a cable physically connecting the car and a charger. Wireless charging works, too, or soon will. Think of the wireless charging pad a cellphone rests on to charge, then scale to a thousand times the current, so it charges an electric car. It’s called inductive charging and it works for the same reason a traditional transformer works: One coil of tightly wound wire, when electricity passes through, causes electrical flow in a wire coil that’s nearby. Usually they’re fractions of an inch apart, but the technology remains efficient from, say, a low-point on the car to the ground.

Prototype units have the transformer coil on the ground (or embedded in the ground) and wide enough that the car doesn’t have to be parked exactly in the middle of the parking space. The receiver coil on the underside of the car would be about the size of a large baking pan.

Phase one is parking space (or home or commercial garage) inductive chargers. That is fast approaching, by 2025 for sure. Phase two is embedding transformer coils in the highway, perhaps the right-hand lane of a divided highway, and motorists charge their cars while driving.

If and when automotive inductive charging happens, it’s the result of decades of research going back to 1972 at the University of Auckland, New Zealand, then the United States, Germany, France and Sweden. Big research universities such as MIT, Michigan, Stanford and Cornell have contributed recent work and prototypes.

Tesla’s prototype mechanical snake charger. Tesla

Tesla: Charge with a Mechanical Snake
Tesla and some others believe a simpler, cheaper alternative to wireless charging is a flexible charging arm—a snake—that finds the charging port, navigates and aligns, inserts the tip, and then chargers. All it requires is a charger door that opens remotely. Tesla has shown prototypes as early as 2015.

Recent pilot programs for inductive pavement charging systems have been announced in Indiana and Michigan. In Sweden, a pilot program uses a slot car-style system to power up BEVs while running. The system being developed at Cornell University could use radio waves to transfer power to vehicles while driving.

Jeep’s Wrangler 4xe offers off-roaders the most powerful option in the lineup. The electrified Wrangler can only travel 21 all-electric miles when set in hybrid mode (highway speeds depletes range quickly), but torque is a beefy 470 pound-feet. Jeep

Plug-In Hybrids: Best Near-Term Choice for Most People
In the meantime, those motorists still worried about range anxiety can turn to the growing number of plug-in hybrids coming to market, including versions of the Toyota RAV4 and Chrysler Pacifica. As with pure electric offerings, they’re filling an ever broader mix of product segments, from compact crossovers like the Kia Niro, to exotic sports cars such as the Ferrari SF90 Stradale.
For a look at plug-ins (also called plug-in hybrid electric vehicles or PHEVs) with excellent battery range, 10 Great Plug-In Hybrids If You’re Not Ready For A Full EV.

Ferrari’s new entry reveals another way in which electrified vehicles are broadening their appeal. The Stradale pairs a twin-turbo V8 with a pair of electric motors to punch out a combined 986 horsepower–giving it enough muscle to hit 60 in just 2.3 seconds.

Those who recall the first generation of plodding plug-ins and BEVs could be in for a surprise when it comes to performance. The second-generation Lexus NX is an example. The new 450h+ plug-in hybrid is the fastest version of the 2022 model, cutting nearly three seconds off the launch time of the turbo NX 350.

Electric motors develop massive amounts of instant torque as soon as they start spinning–if you feed them enough current. In plug-ins, the electric motor delivers maximum power (torque) at zero miles per hour while the combustion engine won’t peak until the car is moving faster and the engine is developing more rpm.

Tesla’s latest Model S variant, the Plaid edition, can hit 60 in about 1.9 seconds. Dodge, meanwhile, expects to launch its own all-electric muscle car by 2024 and promises it will be its fastest model ever.

Electric Car Sales Doubled in First Half of 2021
All these new products and features are clearly connecting with buyers. Sales of BEVs jumped by over 110% during the first half of 2021 – though they still account for barely 2% of the overall U.S. new vehicle market. That’s about half as much as for hybrids. Indeed, Honda and Toyota are betting that the best way to shift buyers away from fossil fuels is through a mix of conventional hybrids, plug-ins and pure battery-electric models.

Tesla remains by far the largest provider of EVs in the U.S. Sales results through September 2021 showed no EVs or plug-ins in the top 20 spots. But Tesla as a company saw nine-month sales shoot up 62%—a bigger gain than all but Genesis and Bentley—with 221,161 sales year-to-date, better than Audi, Acura, Cadillac, Volvo, Lincoln, Land Rover, Porsche, Infiniti, Genesis and 16 mainstream or niche luxury brands. Among premium automakers, only Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lexus fared better and only by 8% to 11%.

Business Buyers See Big R.O.I. with EVs
There are still plenty of skeptics. Brett Smith, a researcher with the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, says that while many retail customers say they’d like to switch to battery power, the real surge may come the commercial side of the market.

Commercial buyers are far more focused on operating costs than retail consumers. And, on a per-mile basis, BEVs have a clear advantage, costing about half as much to keep in motion. That’s why Amazon Prime has ordered 100,000 all-electric delivery trucks from Rivian. Volvo, Mercedes and a growing line-up of manufacturers building everything from garbage trucks to semis are going electric.

There’s an ongoing debate over which way is best to clean up long-haul trucks. Hyundai and Toyota, along with start-up Nikola, are betting the best answer is hydrogen, however. The plus with fuel-cell technology is that it can deliver even longer range – up to 1,000 miles – with refueling times comparable to that of diesel, rather than the hours needed to charge up a big truck’s massive battery pack.

Hyundai’s Xcient fuel cell truck on the road in California this year. Hyundai says its the world’s first mass-produced heavy truck running on hydrogen fuel cells. Hyundai

Hydrogen Fuel Cells Fit For the Long Haul
A different form of electrification could power long-haul trucks: compressed hydrogen gas. Passing hydrogen and oxygen (from the air) through fuel cell membranes yields water (H2O) plus electrons that drive electric motors.

Hydrogen fuel tanks, even armored to withstand high-speed collisions and a .50-caliber rifle round, weigh less than the 10,000 or so pounds of batteries needed to run a truck 500 miles. Hydrogen proponents note hydrogen refueling is quick, on par with filling the same size vehicle with diesel or gasoline, and argue it would be simpler to set up refueling stations in remote areas than it would be to bring in enough electric power to light up a small city.

Either way, battery or hydrogen, long-haul trucking is in for another seismic change: By end of decade, autonomous trucks with enough smarts to get off the road if they’re about to break down, could be able to navigate limited access roads. It will reduce freight costs at a time when the U.S. has a shortage of long-haul drivers, but those 2 million jobs pay relatively well ($60,000 plus) and don’t require a high school diploma.

Electric Pickups for the Heartland
Among lighter work vehicles, electric models appear to be gaining the advantage. Ford is targeting commercial buyers with a version of the F-150 Lightning that will start at just under $40,000. It won’t have the market for long, however. With the Tesla Cybertruck, GMC Hummer EV, Rivian R1T and others on tap, there could be as many as 10 all-electric pickups coming by mid-decade. And these could play well in heartland America where EV adoption has lagged behind the coasts, especially California.

Operating costs could become a selling point for retail, as well as commercial, customers. Virtually every recent study finds that over the lifetime of an electric vehicle, the total cost of owning and maintaining an electric car is less.

A recent study by We Predict found that maintenance costs for EVs – which don’t need tune-ups or oil changes – are a fraction of what owners of gas vehicles pay. And Consumer Reports estimates energy costs are about half as much, though that depends upon where and how EV owners charge up.

But winning over retail buyers will be as much an emotional as practical challenge. And it hasn’t helped to have battery fires grab headlines in recent months. Chevrolet will recall and replace the battery packs in more than 62,000 of its Bolt models after about a dozen of the BEVs caught fire.
“It’s something the industry will have to get a grip on if EVs are going to be the future,” said Dave Sargent, head of the automotive practice at J.D. Power.

EV Fires Get Headlines. Gas Engines Cars Are 10X More Likely to Burn
Hyundai, with its Kona EV, Tesla, and others have also experienced battery fires. But despite the blazing headlines, the numbers actually have been modest, several dozen at most, according to analyst Abuelsamid. Only about 0.006% of EVs have caught fire. By comparison, the National Fire Protection Association shows 212,000 gas and diesel vehicles caught fire in 2018, or about 0.07% of those on U.S. roads.

GM insists the chemistry of its new Ultium batteries will be less prone to short out or catch fire. Tesla and other manufacturers make similar claims. Meanwhile, Honda and Toyota have laid out plans to migrate to solid-state battery technology which is expected to be the next big breakthrough. While not yet ready for mass production at an automotive scale, solid-state batteries promise to deliver even longer range, quicker charging, lower costs – and virtually eliminate the risk of fire. EV proponents say new materials and new manufacturing processes also reduce reliance on miners who are often young, poorly paid and not able to find other work.

More Battery Factories Coming Online in the U.S.
To power up all the new battery-electric vehicles coming to market will require a substantial expansion of battery production, and there is growing pressure to bring that production home, rather than relying on foreign sources, such as China, said Jim Farley, the Ford Chief Executive.
Ford and partner SK Innovation last month announced plans to set up three new battery plants in the U.S., including twin factories in Kentucky and a third in Tennessee at the new Blue Oval City EV production complex. All told, they will yield about 129 gigawatt-hours of storage each year, “enough to power about 1 million battery-electric vehicles” like the F-Series pickups going into Blue Oval City, said Farley.

The second-largest U.S. automaker isn’t alone. GM has revealed plans for three U.S. plants and promised to announce a fourth for its new Ultium batteries. Tesla’s original Gigwatt plant in Nevada will soon be paired with a facility in Texas. And other manufacturers are expected to follow, potentially including Mercedes-Benz.

Rising Interest Among the U.S. Public
Americans are warming to electric cars and trucks. Recent YouGov survey data developed for Forbes Wheels shows show that 27% of American drivers intend to buy or would strongly consider a hybrid and 23% would consider or buy an electric car versus 45% who’d go with gasoline. (Respondents could cite all vehicle types they’d consider.)

Interest in EVs and hybrids differed by region of the country. It was highest in the West and Northeast, less in the Midwest and lowest in the South, seven percentage points less interest than in the West. For details, see Survey: 23% Of Americans Would Consider EV As Next Car.
Other polls show rising interest in electrified vehicles, some with even higher EV-interest figures. Polls open to all often draw people interested in that technology or cause.

In reality most analysts expect U.S. buyers to lag behind those in other major markets, especially in Europe and Asia. About half of the vehicles sold in Norway are now BEVs – though hefty incentives clearly buoy demand. China, meanwhile, has set a goal to have “New Energy Vehicles” – PHEVs and BEVs – account for at least 25% of the market in 2025. And the UK will allow only plug-based vehicles by 2030, with even PHEVs banned by 2035.

The European EV market is leading the charge. In Norway, BEVs already account for about 50% of total new vehicle sales. In Britain, they’re approaching 20%, triple the share in 2019. Those two countries plan to phase out internal combustion engines entirely by 2035 – Britain limiting sales to BEVs and PHEVs by 2030. Other countries, notably including Germany and France, are exploring similar options. In July, the European Commission announced its “Fit for 55” proposal which, if finalized, could require that BEVs make up 50% or more of new vehicle sales by decade’s end, according to IHS Markit.

Overall, plug-in vehicles (EVs, PHEVs) reached 18.4% of EU sales in the first half of 2021.
Canada, as well as New York, Washington State and California, have laid out similar plans. And some of the 15 states that now have copied California’s zero-emission vehicle, or ZEV, mandate, have signaled they may follow.

So, while American motorists may still be slow to warm up to electric vehicles, momentum seems to be shifting as more models come to market, delivering a broader range of options, longer range and improved affordability.


https://www.forbes.com/wheels/features/electric-cars-overview/

 

[Ogre]

But Tesla as a company saw nine-month sales shoot up 62%—a bigger gain than all but Genesis and Bentley—with 221,161 sales year-to-date, better than Audi, Acura, Cadillac, Volvo, Lincoln, Land Rover, Porsche, Infiniti, Genesis and 16 mainstream or niche luxury brands. Among premium automakers, only Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Lexus fared better and only by 8% to 11%.

Is it just me or does this paragraph make it sound like Genesis, Bentley, Benz, and Lexus all beat Tesla out on growth in some way or another? I’m not even sure what that last sentence means, but Genesis and Bentley’s total sales combined are less than Tesla’s sales growth this year.

Whole article is just off, it might as well be a 30 paragraph piece about global smart phone adoption that doesn’t mention Android until paragraph 8 and then only in passing to pan it.

 

[HaulingAss]

Just saw a reference to Musk saying that grid capacity would have to double to insure full BEV adoption. Based on the earlier estimate here of a BEV adding 30% to the average American households consumption that would require each to buy 3 BEV. Wonder what he was thinking?

He didn't say grid capacity would need to double, he said the electricity generated would need to double if every household added two BEVs. Current electrical generation is a small fraction of total generation capacity (which is a fraction of grid capacity). You are confusing grid capacity with consumption.

 

[HaulingAss]

This "heat consumption" is not an "electrical" problem, and shouldn't be dealt with as one. There are many other countries that empathize this more.

Like most complex problems, the answer is a blend of solutions. In an ideal world every house in every climate would be 100% passively heated/cooled. But we know that's not practical, we will always need some form of supplemental heating/cooling in most climates and the goal should be a blend of solutions that minimizes the need for supplemental energy inputs. Thermal mass storage can reduce the amount of battery storage needed. But, at some point, batteries become the cheaper solution. But not if the car you use for storage is not home!

 

[ajdelange]

His words from yesterday were "... people need to appreciate that a lot more electricity production needs to occurr as we move to an electric vehicle fututre. For two homes where both cars are electric the power usage will approximately double". He then went on to say that if heating i converted to electric it will triple. Interpret as you will.

 

[JBee]

His words from yesterday were "... people need to appreciate that a lot more electricity production needs to occurr as we move to an electric vehicle fututre. For two homes where both cars are electric the power usage will approximately double". He then went on to say that if heating i converted to electric it will triple. Interpret as you will.

I interpret that as; two EVs in one household, household electricity consumption doubles. And if heating comes from electricity too (probably heat pump) for a house, then three times the electricity consumption per household. ;-)

That was specifically for household consumption, not commercial or industrial. That doesn't mean they won't double or triple too.

Theres heaps of embodied energy in products and services.

I'm happy that this statement confirms my initial comments regarding how much electricity consumption will increase. And with it an overall network capacity increase IF it doesn't come with embedded storage or V2X that without could result in shortages (like UK fuel atm).

We still need to heaps of RE just to replace fossil atm, let alone increase to follow EV uptake.

Another thing I thought was funny was that EM was also sitting in the dark at his friends house in the Texas blizzard. I mean even I've been offgrid for various houses and businesses for at least 15 years now. Didn't his mate get the memo?

But seriously though I doubt a solar roof and even a string of powerwalls and a heat pump would have got him too far in those conditions. Better off getting out a good ole woodgas CHP.