Why you shouldn’t buy an ICE car after 2025

[Ogre]

Dropping EV prices: Why you shouldn’t buy an ICE car after 2025
October 28, 2020 EV Central team
New research has predicted by 2024 it will cost no more to manufacture a battery electric vehicle than a conventional ICE vehicle.
That moment, according to the author of the research, investment bank UBS, will be pivotal.
“There are not many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025,” Tim Bush, a UBS analyst, told The Guardian.
The drop in battery prices will lead to a rapid acceleration in BEV take-up, UBS predicts. By 2025 they will account for 17 percent of global sales and by 2030 their share will be 40 percent.
BEV sales are already booming in China and the European Union. In the latter, EVs and hybrids are expected to account for one million sales in 2020 out of a total of 11 million.

UBS says it will cost just US$1900 ($2700) more to manufacture a BEV in 2022 compared to an ICE vehicle. That will drop to nothing by 2024.
UBS predicted battery costs will drop below US$100 ($140) per kilowatt hour by 2022, a pricing benchmark long held up as a key competitive moment for BEVs. Tesla and others claim they’ll eventually go much lower than that.
Currently, batteries account for up to 25 percent of the cost of a BEV.
The research is based on detailed analysis of batteries from the seven largest manufacturers, including China’s CATL, Korea’s LG Chem and Japan’s Panasonic.
UBS predicted tardy auto manufacturers who delay a commitment to BEVs risked being left behind by committed rivals such as Tesla and Volkswagen, which is investing 33 billion Euros ($55 billion) into electrification.
UBS also predicted lowering battery costs would spell the end for hybrid vehicles that combine both electrified and ICE propulsion because they would become too expensive.

https://evcentral.com.au/why-you-shouldnt-buy-an-ice-car-after-2025/

 

[Ogre]

I posted this article because it mirrors a sentiment I heard on the Electritek Podcast. Very soon, the cost of EVs is going to reach parity with ICE. Not long after that, it is going to be cheaper to buy EVs than ICE. It feels like this is going to happen sometime in the next 3-5 years. On top of that, consumer sentiment is shifting to EVs very quickly right now.

I‘d go further than this article suggests and say I don’t think it makes a ton of sense to buy an ICE vehicle Today. Maybe a used one or a work vehicle if you can’t make your existing one last for a couple years.

Most people who drive EVs don’t want to go back. If EV prices are below ICE prices, we’re going to quickly have a glut of ICE cars and the used price for non-collectible cars is going to tank.

I’ll leave y‘all with a parting question. In their shareholder’s meeting, GM was talking about 50% of their production capacity being BEV by 2030. Who is going to buy the other 50% of their vehicles?

 

[Sirfun]

Dropping EV prices: Why you shouldn’t buy an ICE car after 2025
October 28, 2020 EV Central team
New research has predicted by 2024 it will cost no more to manufacture a battery electric vehicle than a conventional ICE vehicle.
That moment, according to the author of the research, investment bank UBS, will be pivotal.
“There are not many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025,” Tim Bush, a UBS analyst, told The Guardian.
The drop in battery prices will lead to a rapid acceleration in BEV take-up, UBS predicts. By 2025 they will account for 17 percent of global sales and by 2030 their share will be 40 percent.
BEV sales are already booming in China and the European Union. In the latter, EVs and hybrids are expected to account for one million sales in 2020 out of a total of 11 million.

UBS says it will cost just US$1900 ($2700) more to manufacture a BEV in 2022 compared to an ICE vehicle. That will drop to nothing by 2024.
UBS predicted battery costs will drop below US$100 ($140) per kilowatt hour by 2022, a pricing benchmark long held up as a key competitive moment for BEVs. Tesla and others claim they’ll eventually go much lower than that.
Currently, batteries account for up to 25 percent of the cost of a BEV.
The research is based on detailed analysis of batteries from the seven largest manufacturers, including China’s CATL, Korea’s LG Chem and Japan’s Panasonic.
UBS predicted tardy auto manufacturers who delay a commitment to BEVs risked being left behind by committed rivals such as Tesla and Volkswagen, which is investing 33 billion Euros ($55 billion) into electrification.
UBS also predicted lowering battery costs would spell the end for hybrid vehicles that combine both electrified and ICE propulsion because they would become too expensive.

https://evcentral.com.au/why-you-shouldnt-buy-an-ice-car-after-2025/

This article doesn't make much sense. Right off the bat it comes out with the statement, “There are not many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025.”
Then they go on to say, "By 2025 they will account for 17 percent of global sales and by 2030 their share will be 40 percent."

If an ICE car costs more and there aren't many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025. Then why the hell would 60% still be buying ICE cars 5 years later? Also in addition to the ICE car costing more, imagine what resale prices are going to be like? And True Cost of Ownership?

Hello, how stupid do they think people are?

If you really wanted ICE at that point, just buy used. Used ICE cars will be dirt cheap at that time.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, we're pretty close to cost parity now.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

If an ICE car costs more and there aren't many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025. Then why the hell would 60% still be buying ICE cars 5 years later? Also in addition to the ICE car costing more, imagine what resale prices are going to be like? And True Cost of Ownership?

I remember in 2008-2009 or so, Windows was still such a huge monopoly, and the phone market was dominated by Nokia and Blackberry. Industry analysts were predicting cell phone market share and they suggested that the industry would stabilize with Apple around 15% market share, Android around 15%, Microsoft at 40% share, and Nokia and Blackeberry splitting the rest. (The exact numbers are way different, but in that ballpark).

At least in the technology industry, an absolutely massive amount of industry analysts are employed by businesses within the industry. That is their bread and butter. If you were an analyst in the late 00s and you said Apple and Google would dominate the cell phone industry, it would probably be tough to get a job with Microsoft or Nokia.

Also, less cynical. Industry analysts are so close to the companies they see and deal with on a daily basis that it’s inconceivable that the dominant companies would just fail so completely to adapt. GM, VW, Ford, Stellantis etc etc are all predicting 50% of their production will be ICE in 2030. Any analysts who suggests that ICE vehicles will be obsolete in 9 years is also predicting all of the major players in the industry are running around with their pants down. Sometimes it’s hard for the guy saying the emperor has no pants on to get a job.

 

[Ogre]

Yeah, we're pretty close to cost parity now.

-Crissa

Parity at certain price performance levels for certain.

If the 4680 delivers on it’s promised cost advantage, it will almost certainly break this wide open.

Musk suggested this year was the inflection point and I’m inclined to believe him. The problem industry players have is right now Tesla can produce EVs with a profit margin of 28%. That was pre-4680. The 4680 is supposed to reduce costs massively. For the Model Y, they also have the gigapress reducing costs and weight further.

If Tesla can ever catch up with Model Y production, they can always work their way down-market by reintroducing the Model Y SR and Model Y RWD LR. Conceivably they can return to selling Model Ys in the $42k price range and maintain their ~28% margins.

 

[Sirfun]

Yeah, we're pretty close to cost parity now.

-Crissa

I think the price of new cars isn't very close yet. Compare the price of Model Y, to a Rav 4, or a CRV. If you look at TCO, then there may be parity.
But what if the tax incentives get passed, and the cost of a Model Y, with Fed & state incentives come into play, with $10,000 off the sale price. Then, with TCO, Tesla would crush ICE.

 

[Crissa]

I think the price of new cars isn't very close yet. Compare the price of Model Y, to a Rav 4, or a CRV. If you look at TCO, then there may be parity.

A Model Y isn't competing with a Rav 4 or CRV, they both have more range, more interior space, more ground clearance. The Model Y is a good car, but it's not that kind of car.

We're approaching parity for the crossover and the mid lux sedan. Not SUV. Not motorcycles. Not compacts, although Leafs are selling in the near-new market quite well right now. EVs are cheaper and more powerful in the luxury market, at least msrp.

The smaller end, the less frills end? No, no parity yet. But the expensive end? It's exceeded parity. There's just not enough kinds of EVs yet. Not cheap enough batteries. EVs can do many things cheaper than ICE cars do, such as traction control and automation. You basically get this stuff free (well, software) with the motor controller. You already have to have a computer running the vehicle. With ICE that stuff is shoe-horned in with extra sensors and computers needed to keep the engine running clean.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

EVs can do many things cheaper than ICE cars do, such as traction control and automation. You basically get this stuff free (well, software) with the motor controller. You already have to have a computer running the vehicle. With ICE that stuff is shoe-horned in with extra sensors and computers needed to keep the engine running clean.

-Crissa

Most Teslas excluding the rear end of the Plaid still use the exact same setup as ICE cars for traction control using electronic throttle control and brake modulation to reduce wheel slippage. This is because they use open differentials just like ICE vehicles do to.

Computers (aka microcontrollers or MCUs) are as cheap as chips (if you can get them) for ABS/traction/ESP/trailer sway/wind correction/etc and are not in any way reliant on propulsion method, be that ICE, BEV, PHEV, or fuel cell etc.

 

[Crissa]

Computers (aka microcontrollers or MCUs) are as cheap as chips (if you can get them) for ABS/traction/ESP/trailer sway/wind correction/etc and are not in any way reliant on propulsion method, be that ICE, BEV, PHEV, or fuel cell etc.

An EV already has sensors for speed and throttle control built into the motor controller. It knows when the motor and wheel are speeding up, because it already does this to track the frequency of the electric pulses going into the motor.

An ICE needs additional sensors per wheel and computers to do this.because it doesn't already do this. These are additional pieces added onto the drive train.

Yes, they both need control and sensors on the brakes, but you need that for ABS anyhow.

Tesla does a bunch of this by combining microcontrollers and controlling them with their central computer. EVs just have fewer parts. Even in automation, they have fewer parts.

-Crissa

 

[Sirfun]

A Model Y isn't competing with a Rav 4 or CRV, they both have more range, more interior space, more ground clearance. The Model Y is a good car, but it's not that kind of car.

We're approaching parity for the crossover and the mid lux sedan. Not SUV. Not motorcycles. Not compacts, although Leafs are selling in the near-new market quite well right now. EVs are cheaper and more powerful in the luxury market, at least msrp.

The smaller end, the less frills end? No, no parity yet. But the expensive end? It's exceeded parity. There's just not enough kinds of EVs yet. Not cheap enough batteries. EVs can do many things cheaper than ICE cars do, such as traction control and automation. You basically get this stuff free (well, software) with the motor controller. You already have to have a computer running the vehicle. With ICE that stuff is shoe-horned in with extra sensors and computers needed to keep the engine running clean.

-Crissa

My thoughts as well. Trucks are next. COME ON CYBERTRUCK!!!!!

 

[Cyberman]

This article doesn't make much sense. Right off the bat it comes out with the statement, “There are not many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025.”
Then they go on to say, "By 2025 they will account for 17 percent of global sales and by 2030 their share will be 40 percent."

If an ICE car costs more and there aren't many reasons left to buy an ICE car after 2025. Then why the hell would 60% still be buying ICE cars 5 years later? Also in addition to the ICE car costing more, imagine what resale prices are going to be like? And True Cost of Ownership?

Hello, how stupid do they think people are?

If you really wanted ICE at that point, just buy used. Used ICE cars will be dirt cheap at that time.

People are plenty stupid. A lot of older people will still want what they're used to, ICE. Others have range anxiety, even if it's nonexistent, it stays in their minds. Still other will be steered by stealerships into ICE purchases. The old guard is crafty, lots of people are sheep.

 

[Crissa]

All we need is a 300 mile range sub-$40k car with eight inches of clearance and my mom is in. Being able to drive unplowed roads is her last percent needed.

-Crissa

 

[JBee]

An EV already has sensors for speed and throttle control built into the motor controller. It knows when the motor and wheel are speeding up, because it already does this to track the frequency of the electric pulses going into the motor.

An ICE needs additional sensors per wheel and computers to do this.because it doesn't already do this. These are additional pieces added onto the drive train.

Yes, they both need control and sensors on the brakes, but you need that for ABS anyhow.

Tesla does a bunch of this by combining microcontrollers and controlling them with their central computer. EVs just have fewer parts. Even in automation, they have fewer parts.

-Crissa

Traction control is a function of the ABS computer that typically controls ESP/VSC (Electronic Stability). This is predominantly a braking system and the extent of interaction with propulsion (ICE or EV) is limited to throttle control. It's been a few decades since I last drove a ICE car or truck or tractor or earthmoving machine without electronic throttle control. In fact it probably was a old John Deere grader from the 90's. with a cable driven hand throttle.

Nevertheless, ICE have a thing called a rev counter that is also used for engine timing purposes, so an ICE knows the RPM just as well as a EV controller. But knowing the electric motor speed or ICE speed is only one smaller part of the traction problem.

The primary reference points are the individual wheel rpm sensors that are used by the ABS controller and the steering angle sensor, which are all the same on a EV or ICE. In fact you can buy a defeat kit for the Tesla ABS controller so you can adjust the traction and stability control for drifting. BTW the brakes can easily defeat the motor torque in most cars, so throttle control is not always required, and in fact brake control has much less response latency. Don't forget that most cars have open differentials, even Teslas except the rear end on a Plaid which can also do torque vectoring. (Although I admit I haven't seen it in action yet). An open diff means that if you brake one wheel the drive automatically goes to the otherside of the diff not just to the motor/engine.

In the simplest terms traction control measures the rpm of each wheel and if a driven wheel has a higher rpm than the other driven wheel the ABS controller signals the motor/engine controller to reduce throttle and uses the ABS braking controller to brake the wheel that is to fast so it matches the other driving wheel. This is then biased left and right by the amount of steering angle. ABS braking is the exact same function, except it reduces the braking force of the brake pedal instead of the throttle, but also tries to get all wheels to decelerate at the same rate and rpm, also biased by steering input. ESP/VSC is very similar again, but goes as far as using both throttle and brake at the same time, meaning VSC can actually "tank steer" a vehicle by using brakes on the wheels on one side and increasing power to the other side wheel(s) from the motor/engine which makes the car yaw to regain control.

The point is the ABS controller tells the motor engine/controller not the other way around. These things have been around for decades and are off the shelf parts that are simply not worth recreating. There are some that include accelerometer and gyro now as well. I haven't heard of any visual integration...yet.

BTW Tesla "central computer" as you call it has nothing to do with ABS/traction etc control. MCU's typically run machine code and don't have a operating system like Tesla's "central computer" which runs linux because they have to operate super fast in "real time" with as little compute cycles as possible on "bear metal" processors and code. As MCU increase in performance, there are RTOS setups to aid with process scheduling etc. but otherwise adding an OS overhead reduces performance and increases latency.

The linux part is mostly the GUI you see on the screen along with entertainment and comms functions running on a CPU. The neural networks and vision systems are run separately to that again, in isolated processes and hardware on parallel processing units (like GPUs) which then interface directly with steering, brake and throttle inputs of those particular MCU controllers through various buses like the CAN bus, you can access some of via a OBD2 port reader.

If you take the time to investigate these it's fairly straight forward. Likewise, the info presented here would be more accurate because of it and would reflect how it actually is rather than fluffy fabrications of technical terms that are biased to make Ev's sound better, or more "special" than ICE. I mean all EV's have wheels right? Just like ICE. Tech on how they interact with the ground has been centuries in the making

 

[Ogre]

The smaller end, the less frills end? No, no parity yet. But the expensive end? It's exceeded parity. There's just not enough kinds of EVs yet. Not cheap enough batteries.

This is where I think things go sideways.

What does a “low frills“ Tesla look like? It’s clear Musk wants every Tesla to ship with FSD and their 15” console. They will likely keep seats and many of the other components the same as well. Traction control is free. AWD increases range so even that will likely come to their lower end vehicles. Musk has also made it clear they want the safest vehicles on the road.

I’d thought the Cybertruck might be a model for next generation cars, but I’m kind of thinking it might be a one off or just be limited to vehicles which need to be super durable.

Musk hinted previously that the Giga-press might eventually stamp out entire cars. I’m not sure that is possible, but a single integrated undercarriage and maybe just a few other big, cast pieces might replace the existing car body?